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Dynamic Analysis and Forecasts of Rough Rice Price under Government Price Support Program: An Application of Bayesian VAR

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  • No, Sung Chul
  • Salassi, Michael E.

Abstract

This study constructs a Bayesian VAR model of US rice prices, in conjunction with supply and demand functions. Various validation tests are conducted to examine whether or not the BVAR model satisfies its dual functionality: Providing a dynamic analysis of the effects of a price support program and generating reasonable short-term rice price forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • No, Sung Chul & Salassi, Michael E., 2006. "Dynamic Analysis and Forecasts of Rough Rice Price under Government Price Support Program: An Application of Bayesian VAR," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35279, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:saeaso:35279
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35279
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Effects Of A Price Support Program On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(02), December.
    3. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    4. Barry Goodwin & Randy Schnepf & Erik Dohlman, 2005. "Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 253-263.
    5. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
    6. Jean-Paul Chavas & Kwansoo Kim, 2004. "A Heteroskedastic Multivariate Tobit Analysis of Price Dynamics in the Presence of Price Floors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 576-593.
    7. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(02), August.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy;

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