Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?
This article studies US corn price fluctuations in the past two decades. Price volatility is explained by volatility clustering, the influence of energy prices, corn stocks and global economic conditions. A multivariate GARCH specification that allows for exogenous variables in the conditional covariance model is estimated both parametrically and semiparametrically. Findings provide evidence of price volatility transmission between ethanol and corn markets. They also suggest that macroeconomic instability can increase corn price volatility. Finally, stock building is found to significantly reduce corn price fluctuations.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
- Hardle, W. & Tsybakov, A., 1997.
"Local polynomial estimators of the volatility function in nonparametric autoregression,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 223-242, November.
- Wolfgang HÄRDLE & A. TSYBAKOV, 1995. "Local Polynomial Estimators of the Volatility Function in Nonparametric Autoregression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,42, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2009.
"Price volatility in ethanol markets,"
2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China
49940, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2009. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49188, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
- Lai, YiHao & Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard, 2009. "Optimal dynamic hedging via copula-threshold-GARCH models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2609-2624.
- Denis Pelletier, 2004.
"Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
230, Econometric Society.
- Nicholas Apergis & Anthony Rezitis, 2003. "Agricultural price volatility spillover effects: the case of Greece," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 389-406, September.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, May.
- Moschini, GianCarlo & Myers, Robert J., 2002.
"Testing for Constant Hedge Ratios in Commodity Markets: A Multivariate Garch Approach,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
1945, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Moschini, GianCarlo & Myers, Robert J., 2002. "Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 589-603, December.
- GianCarlo Moschini & Robert J. Myers, 2001. "Testing for Constant Hedge Ratios in Commodity Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 01-wp268, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Gerald E. Shively, 1996. "Food Price Variability and Economic Reform: An ARCH Approach for Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 126-136.
- Brian D. Wright, 2011. "The Economics of Grain Price Volatility," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 32-58.
- Buguk, Cumhur & Hudson, Darren & Hanson, Terrill R., 2003. "Price Volatility Spillover in Agricultural Markets: An Examination of U.S. Catfish Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(01), April.
- Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Effects Of A Price Support Program On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(02), December.
- Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005.
"Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
577, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2005.
- Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," Research Paper Series 168, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Brian D. Wright & Jeffrey C. Williams, 1984. "The Welfare Effects of the Introduction of Storage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(1), pages 169-192.
- Xiangdong Long & Liangjun Su & Aman Ullah, 2011.
"Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 109-125, January.
- Long, Xiangdong & Su, Liangjun & Ullah, Aman, 2011. "Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 109-125.
- Zibin Zhang & Luanne Lohr & Cesar Escalante & Michael Wetzstein, 2009. "Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-320, June.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- José A. Scheinkman & Jack Schechtman, 1983. "A Simple Competitive Model with Production and Storage," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 427-441.
- Balcombe, Kelvin, 2009. "The Nature and Determinants of Volatility in Agricultural Prices," MPRA Paper 24819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "The impact of general non-parametric volatility functions in multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3032-3052, July.
- Natcher, William C. & Weaver, Robert D., 1999. "The Transmission Of Price Volatility In The Beef Markets," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21511, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José M. Gil & Barry K. Goodwin, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn‐ethanol‐oil‐gasoline price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 35-45, 01.
- Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.