Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations
In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The approach adopted here is based on the decomposition of the covariances into correlations and standard deviations. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to an endogenous or exogenous transition variable. An LM test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the Standard & Poor 500 stock index completes the paper. The model is estimated for the full five-dimensional system as well as several subsystems and the results discussed in detail.
|Date of creation:||07 Jan 2005|
|Date of revision:||01 Oct 2005|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming as Silvennoinen, Annastiina and Timo Teräsvirta, 'Modelling conditional correlations in asset returns: A smooth transition approach' in Econometric Reviews.|
|Note:||Forthcoming under a new title: Modelling conditional correlations in asset returns: A smooth transition approavh|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pelletier, Denis, 2006.
"Regime switching for dynamic correlations,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
- Denis Pelletier, 2004. "Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 230, Econometric Society.
- Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2005.
"Non-linear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 251-276, 07.
- Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2002. "Nonlinear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,20, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Francois Chesnay & Eric Jondeau, 2001.
"Does Correlation Between Stock Returns Really Increase During Turbulent Periods?,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(1), pages 53-80, 02.
- Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Working papers 73, Banque de France.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2003.
"Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view,"
- Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
- R-P. Berben & W.J. Jansen, 2001. "Comovement in International Equity Markets: a Sectoral View," MEB Series (discontinued) 2001-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
- Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006.
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001.
"Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- He, Changli & Ter svirta, Timo, 2004. "An Extended Constant Conditional Correlation Garch Model And Its Fourth-Moment Structure," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 904-926, October.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-62, July.
- Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001.
"Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Bera, Anil K. & Kim, Sangwhan, 2002. "Testing constancy of correlation and other specifications of the BGARCH model with an application to international equity returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 171-195, March.
- Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
- Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 70-86, February.
- Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
- Tse, Y. K., 2000.
"A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September.
- Tom Doan, . "TSECCTEST: RATS procedure to perform Tse test for constant correlation in MV-GARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTS00214, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Tse's constant correlation GARCH test results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00161, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helena Lundin)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.