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Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view

  • Robert-Paul Berben

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

  • W. Jos Jansen

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

We investigate shifts in correlation patterns among international equity returns at the market level as well as the industry level. We develop a novel bivariate GARCH model for equity returns with a smoothly time- varying correlation and then derive a Lagrange Multiplier statistic to test the constant-correlation hypothesis directly. Applying the test to weekly data from Germany, Japan, the UK and the US in the period 1980- 2000, we find that correlations among the German, UK and US stock markets have doubled, whereas Japanese correlations have remained the same. Both dates of change and speeds of adjustment vary widely across countries and sectors.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/fin/papers/0310/0310001.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0310001.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0310001
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on pc; to print on HP, A4 page format; pages: 28 ; figures: included. Final version, forthcoming in Journal of International Money and Finance
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Roll, Richard, 1992. " Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
  3. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Evaluating GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October.
  4. Yiu Kuen Tse & Albert K. C. Tsui, 2000. "A Multivariate GARCH Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0250, Econometric Society.
  5. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. John M. Griffin & G. Andrew Karolyi, . "Another Look at the Role of the Industrial Structure of Markets for International Diversification Strategies," Research in Financial Economics 9608, Ohio State University.
  7. G. William Schwert, 2001. "Stock Volatility in the New Millennium: How Wacky Is Nasdaq?," NBER Working Papers 8436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521779654 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  11. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2000. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 376, Stockholm School of Economics.
  12. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  13. Roll, R., 1989. "Price Volatility, International Market Links, And Their Implications For Regulatory Policies," Papers t10, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521770415 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Richardson, Matthew P & Smith, Tom, 1994. "A Unified Approach to Testing for Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 371-99, July.
  16. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  17. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Martikainen, Teppo & Tse, Yiuman, 1997. "Price and volatility spillovers in Scandinavian stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 811-823, June.
  19. Luis Catão & Robin Brooks, 2000. "The New Economy and Global Stock Return," IMF Working Papers 00/216, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Tse, Y. K., 2000. "A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September.
  21. G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2002. "Are Financial Assets Priced Locally or Globally?," NBER Working Papers 8994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Giancarlo Corsetti & Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know Before Running a Test," Working Papers 822, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  24. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  25. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  26. Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. "Increasing convergence among European stock markets?: A recursive common stochastic trends analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 383-389, June.
  27. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
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