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Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model

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  • Xiangdong Long
  • Liangjun Su
  • Aman Ullah

Abstract

We propose a semiparametric conditional covariance (SCC) estimator that combines the first-stage parametric conditional covariance (PCC) estimator with the second-stage nonparametric correction estimator in a multiplicative way. We prove the asymptotic normality of our SCC estimator, propose a nonparametric test for the correct specification of PCC models, and study its asymptotic properties. We evaluate the finite sample performance of our test and SCC estimator and compare the latter with that of the PCC estimator, purely nonparametric estimator, and Hafner, Dijk, and Franses's (2006) estimator in terms of mean squared error and Value-at-Risk losses via simulations and real data analyses.

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  • Xiangdong Long & Liangjun Su & Aman Ullah, 2011. "Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 109-125, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:29:y:2011:i:1:p:109-125 DOI: 10.1198/jbes.2009.07057
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    Cited by:

    1. Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 689-698.
    2. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Martínez Ibáñez, Óscar, 2012. "Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models," Working Papers 2072/203167, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    3. Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2013. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 3-17.
    4. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    5. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    6. López Cabrera, Brenda & Schulz, Franziska, 2016. "Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 190-203.
    7. Dungey, Mardi & Long, Xiangdong & Ullah, Aman & Wang, Yun, 2014. "A semiparametric conditional duration model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, pages 362-366.
    8. Abdelradi, Fadi & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Food–energy nexus in Europe: Price volatility approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 157-167.
    9. Yulia Kotlyarova & Marcia M Schafgans & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2011. "Adapting Kernel Estimation to Uncertain Smoothness," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 557, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    10. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Relationship Between Prices of Food, Fuel and Biofuel," 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic 135793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Serra, Teresa, 2012. "Biofuel-related price volatility literature: a review and new approaches," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126057, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Yan Li & Liangjun Su & Yuewu Xu, 2015. "A Combined Approach to the Inference of Conditional Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 203-220.
    13. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, pages 141-155.
    14. Barigozzi, Matteo & Brownlees, Christian & Gallo, Giampiero M. & Veredas, David, 2014. "Disentangling systematic and idiosyncratic dynamics in panels of volatility measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 364-384.
    15. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
    16. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2015. "Jackknife model averaging for quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 40-58.
    17. Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2013. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 507-528, July.
    18. repec:fpr:export:1344 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 3108. "Consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators of a multiplicative time-varying smooth transition correlation GARCH model," CREATES Research Papers 2017-28, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria, 2012. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126055, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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