IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae11/115997.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Volatility Spillovers between Food and Energy Markets, A Semiparametric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Serra, Teresa

Abstract

Previous literature on volatility links between food and energy prices is scarce and mainly based on parametric approaches. We assess this issue by using a semiparametric GARCH model recently proposed by Long et al. (2009), which is essentially a nonparametric correction of the parametric conditional covariance function. We focus on price links between crude oil, ethanol and sugar prices in Brazil. Results suggest strong volatility links between the prices studied. They also suggest that parametric approximations of the conditional covariance matrix may lead to misleading results and can be improved using nonparametric techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers between Food and Energy Markets, A Semiparametric Approach," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115997, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:115997
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.115997
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/115997/files/Serra_Teresa_241.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.115997?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
    2. Susanto, Dwi & Rosson, C. Parr & Hudson, Darren, 2008. "Impacts of Expanded Ethanol Production on Southern Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 581-592, August.
    3. Wallace E. Tyner & Farzad Taheripour, 2008. "Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 387-396.
    4. Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Distributional Implications of U.S. Ethanol Policy ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 533-542.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Kevin McNew & Duane Griffith, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 164-180.
    7. Harry de Gorter & David R. Just, 2008. "Water in the U.S. Ethanol Tax Credit and Mandate: Implications for Rectangular Deadweight Costs and the Corn-Oil Price Relationship," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 397-410.
    8. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José Gil, 2011. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 259-280, June.
    9. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    10. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
    11. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    12. Paul Gallagher & Robert Wisner & Heather Brubacker, 2005. "Price Relationships in Processors' Input Market Areas: Testing Theories for Corn Prices Near Ethanol Plants," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(2‐3), pages 117-139, June.
    13. Gallagher, Paul W. & Wisner, Robert N. & Brubaker, Heather, 2005. "Pricing Relationships in Processors' Input Market Areas: Testing Theories for Corn Prices Near Ethanol Plants," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12305, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Awartani, Basel M.A. & Corradi, Valentina, 2005. "Predicting the volatility of the S&P-500 stock index via GARCH models: the role of asymmetries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 167-183.
    15. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," Research Paper Series 168, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    17. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    18. Lai, YiHao & Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard, 2009. "Optimal dynamic hedging via copula-threshold-GARCH models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2609-2624.
    19. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
    20. Hardle, W. & Tsybakov, A., 1997. "Local polynomial estimators of the volatility function in nonparametric autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 223-242, November.
    21. de Gorter, Harry & Just, David R., 2007. "The Welfare Economics of an Excise-Tax Exemption for Biofuels," MPRA Paper 5151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    22. Long, Xiangdong & Su, Liangjun & Ullah, Aman, 2011. "Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 109-125.
    23. Kevin McNew & Duane Griffith, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 164-180.
    24. Luchansky, Matthew S. & Monks, James, 2009. "Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 403-410, May.
    25. Seo, Byeongseon, 2007. "Asymptotic distribution of the cointegrating vector estimator in error correction models with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 68-111, March.
    26. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    27. Edmar Fagundes de Almeida & Jose Vitor Bomtempo & Carla Maria de Souza e Silva, 2007. "The Performance of Brazilian Biofuels: An Economic, Environmental and Social Analysis," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2007/5, OECD Publishing.
    28. Gardner Bruce, 2007. "Fuel Ethanol Subsidies and Farm Price Support," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22, December.
    29. Xiangdong Long & Liangjun Su & Aman Ullah, 2009. "Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model Variables with Econometric Applications," Working Papers 200908, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2009.
    30. Jason Henderson & Brent A. Gloy, 2009. "The impact of ethanol plants on cropland values in the great plains," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 69(1), pages 36-48, May.
    31. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "The impact of general non-parametric volatility functions in multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3032-3052, July.
    32. Jason Henderson & Brent A. Gloy, 2009. "The impact of ethanol plants on cropland values in the great plains," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 69(1), pages 36-48, May.
    33. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    34. Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp468, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    35. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    36. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José M. Gil & Barry K. Goodwin, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn‐ethanol‐oil‐gasoline price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 35-45, January.
    37. Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
    38. Oecd, 2006. "Agricultural Market Impacts of Future Growth in the Production of Biofuels," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 1-57.
    39. Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Burnquist, Heloisa Lee & Vian, Carlos Eduardo de Freitas, 2006. "Bioenergy and the Rise of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol in Brazil," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-6.
    40. Taheripour, Farzad & Tyner, Wallace E., 2008. "Ethanol Policy Analysis - What Have We Learned So Far?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 1-6.
    41. Zibin Zhang & Luanne Lohr & Cesar Escalante & Michael Wetzstein, 2009. "Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-20, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2013. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(3), pages 507-528, July.
    2. Abdelradi, Fadi & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Food–energy nexus in Europe: Price volatility approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 157-167.
    3. Zingbagba, Mark & Nunes, Rubens & Fadairo, Muriel, 2020. "The impact of diesel price on upstream and downstream food prices: Evidence from São Paulo," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    5. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    6. Long, Xiangdong & Su, Liangjun & Ullah, Aman, 2011. "Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 109-125.
    7. López Cabrera, Brenda & Schulz, Franziska, 2016. "Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 190-203.
    8. Hassouneh, Islam & Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria, 2011. "Non-parametric and Parametric Modeling of Biodiesel - Sunflower Oil - Crude Oil Price Relationships," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114554, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2013. "The effect of biofuel policies on feedstock market: Empirical evidence for rapeseed oil prices in EU," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 18-37.
    10. Hassouneh, Islam & Serra, Teresa & Goodwin, Barry K. & Gil, José M., 2012. "Non-parametric and parametric modeling of biodiesel, sunflower oil, and crude oil price relationships," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1507-1513.
    11. Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 689-698.
    12. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Amer Ait Sidhoum & Teresa Serra, 2016. "Volatility Spillovers in the Spanish Food Marketing Chain: The Case of Tomato," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 45-63, January.
    14. Eskandar Elmarzougui & Bruno Larue, 2013. "On the Evolving Relationship Between Corn and Oil Prices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 344-360, June.
    15. Serra, Teresa, 2012. "Biofuel-related price volatility literature: a review and new approaches," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126057, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    17. María Blanco & Marcel Adenäuer & Shailesh Shrestha & Arno Becker, 2012. "Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC80037, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    18. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    19. Bentivoglio, Deborah & Finco, Adele & Bacchi, Mirian, 2015. "Examining Price Transmission between Fuels and Food Prices: the Brazilian Sugar-Ethanol Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211327, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Algieri, Bernardina, 2014. "The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 227-247.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:115997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.