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Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

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  • Jacinto F. Fabiosa
  • John C. Beghin
  • Fengxia Dong
  • JAmani Elobeid
  • Simla Tokgoz
  • Tun-Hsiang Yu

Abstract

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on world agriculture using the multimarket, multicommodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world prices and trade. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil and other countries, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for important crops and countries. The Brazilian ethanol expansion using sugarcane has fewer consequences on existing arable land allocation than the U.S. ethanol expansion does using corn feedstock.

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  • Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:86:y:2010:iv:1:p:687-706
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    Cited by:

    1. Sobowale, Flakkeh & Dicks, Michael R. & Adam, Brian D. & Campiche, Jody L., 2012. "Impact of United States Corn-Based Ethanol Production on Land Use," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119800, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Héctor M. Núñez & Andrés Trujillo-Barrera, 2015. "Impact of U.S. Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Drastic Climate Conditions," Working papers DTE 585, CIDE, División de Economía.
    3. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
    4. Castro, Eduardo Rodrigues de & Teixeira, Erly Cardoso & Valdes, Constanza, 2012. "Sugar Cane Expansion: Does It Contribute To Amazon Deforestation?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 131703, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Felippe Cauê Serigati & Paulo Furquim De Azevedo & Mario Antonio Margarido, 2014. "How Integrated Are The Main Markets Ofethanol?," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 185, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes & Miguel Carriquiry & Fengxia Dong & Xiaodong Du & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Kranti Mulik, 2010. "Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 10-wp504, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    7. Kim, In Seck & Binfield, Julian & Patton, Myles & Zhang, Lichun & Moss, Joan, 2013. "Impact of increasing liquid biofuel usage on EU and UK agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 59-69.
    8. Nuñez, Hector M., 2016. "Biofuel Potential in Mexico: Land Use, Economic and Environmental Effects," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236067, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. María Blanco & Marcel Adenäuer & Shailesh Shrestha & Arno Becker, 2012. "Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach," JRC Working Papers JRC80037, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    10. Hector, Nuñez & Andres, Trujillo-Barrera, 2014. "Impact of U.S. Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Uncertain Climate Conditions," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170620, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser & et al., 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    12. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    13. Krissana Treesilvattanakul & Farzad Taheripour & Wallace E. Tyner, 2014. "Application of US and EU Sustainability Criteria to Analysis of Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(8), pages 1-10, August.
    14. Okwo, Adaora & Thomas, Valerie M., 2014. "Biomass feedstock contracts: Role of land quality and yield variability in near term feasibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-80.
    15. repec:bla:jageco:v:68:y:2017:i:3:p:839-860 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang, 2010. "The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food−Fuel Trade-Offs?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31603, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. repec:ags:iaae12:126735 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Brown, Jesslyn F. & Pervez, Md Shahriar, 2014. "Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 28-40.
    19. Sobowale, Folakemi & Dicks, Michael R. & Campiche, Jody L., 2011. "Impact of United States Corn-based Ethanol Production on Land Use," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98854, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Dodder, Rebecca S. & Kaplan, P. Ozge & Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Secchi, Silvia & Kurkalova, Lyubov A., 2015. "Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-87.
    21. Jane, Harrigan, 2011. "Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis," CEI Working Paper Series 2011-5, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    22. repec:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:148-160 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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