IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ajagec/v106y2024i2p637-658.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogenous price fluctuations: Evidence from the chicken supply chain in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Imran Chaudhry
  • Mario J. Miranda

Abstract

Persistent agricultural price fluctuations in developing countries have revived interest in the theory of endogenous price instability. We examine the underlying cause of price instability in Pakistan's broiler and chick markets. To this end, we utilize findings from our fieldwork and estimates from unobserved component‐models to formulate a theoretical model of endogenous price fluctuations in the chicken supply chain of Pakistan. Under standard assumptions, we derive hypotheses from our theoretical model that can be tested by using vector autoregressions and weekly data on broiler and chick (farm‐gate) prices in Pakistan. Our empirical estimates conform to the predictions of our theoretical model, and evidence of endogenous dynamics in observed prices is robust to alternative specifications and estimation methods. We use numerical simulations to illustrate that empirically grounded parameterizations of our theoretical model can emulate the salient features of broiler and chick price fluctuations in Pakistan. The accumulation of evidence from our descriptive, empirical, and numerical analysis builds a compelling case for the endogenous nature of price instability in Pakistan's chicken supply chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Imran Chaudhry & Mario J. Miranda, 2024. "Endogenous price fluctuations: Evidence from the chicken supply chain in Pakistan," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 637-658, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:106:y:2024:i:2:p:637-658
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12394
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12394
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ajae.12394?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Boehlje, 1999. "Structural Changes in the Agricultural Industries: How Do We Measure, Analyze and Understand Them?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1028-1041.
    2. Fuente,Angel de la, 2000. "Mathematical Methods and Models for Economists," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521585293, June.
    3. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, June.
    4. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, December.
    5. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    6. Oglend, Atle & Kleppe, Tore Selland, 2017. "On the behavior of commodity prices when speculative storage is bounded," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 52-69.
    7. Huffaker, R. & Canavari, M. & Muñoz-Carpena, R., 2018. "Distinguishing between endogenous and exogenous price volatility in food security assessment: An empirical nonlinear dynamics approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 98-109.
    8. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.
    9. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198, June.
    10. Astrid Fliessbach & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Cycles in cattle and hog prices in South America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1167-1183, October.
    11. Frank Asche & Atle Oglend & Tore Selland Kleppe, 2017. "Price Dynamics in Biological Production Processes Exposed to Environmental Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1246-1264.
    12. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, June.
    13. Piroli, Giuseppe & Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2012. "Land use change impacts of biofuels: Near-VAR evidence from the US," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 98-109.
    14. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Miranda, Mario J., 2018. "Complex price dynamics in vertically linked cobweb markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 363-378.
    15. Özelkan, Ertunga C. & ÇakanyIldIrIm, Metin, 2009. "Reverse bullwhip effect in pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 302-312, January.
    16. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1991. "On Nonlinear Dynamics: The Case of the Pork Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 819-828.
    17. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    18. Samantha L. Padilla & Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool‐Tasie & Robert J. Myers, 2021. "The effects of feed and energy costs on broiler farm decisions: A dynamic programming approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 249-264, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2012. "Regulations and price discovery: oil spot and futures markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    3. repec:lic:licosd:37115 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    5. Piroli, Giuseppe & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d׳Artis, 2015. "From a rise in B to a fall in C? SVAR analysis of environmental impact of biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 921-930.
    6. Sigl-Grüb, C. & Schiereck, D., 2010. "Speculation and Nonlinear Price Dynamics in Commodity Futures Markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 56603, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    8. Ng, Desmond & Chen, Liming, 2016. "Learning to Learn: A Case for the Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis in Industrialized Markets," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, June.
    9. D. (Derek) Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. (Edward Joseph) O'Brien, 2009. "Exploring long memory and nonlinearity in Irish real exchange Rates using tests based on semiparametric estimation," Working Papers 200901, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    10. Yılmaz, Engin & Süslü, Bora, 2015. "The Calculation of Weighted Price Elasticity of Tax: Turkey (1998-2013)," MPRA Paper 64417, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Apr 2015.
    11. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    12. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    13. Brian Wright, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 73-98, Winter.
    14. Anton Velinov, 2014. "Assessing the Sustainability of Government Debt: On the Different States of the Debt/GDP Process," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1359, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2445-2457.
    16. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    17. Ihle, Rico & Brümmer, Bernhard & Thompson, Stanley R., 2010. "Structural change in European calf markets: Policy decoupling and movement restrictions," 114th Seminar, April 15-16, 2010, Berlin, Germany 61085, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2011. "Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1008-1017, February.
    19. Atle Oglend & Vesa-Heikki Soini, 2020. "Equilibrium Working Curves with Heterogeneous Agents," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 355-372, August.
    20. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    21. Sahminan, 2005. "Interest Rates And The Role Of Exchange Rate Regimes In Major Southeast Asian Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 8(2), pages 141-180, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:106:y:2024:i:2:p:637-658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-8276 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.