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How Vulnerable are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?

Author

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  • Elena I. Ianchovichina
  • Josef L. Loening
  • Christina A. Wood

Abstract

We estimate pass-through effects of international food price movements into domestic food prices for 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, using threshold regressions. International price movements transmit to various degrees into domestic prices. Transmission is mostly asymmetric, pushing domestic price levels up as increases in international food prices are typically passed through, but declines are rarely transmitted. This situation is indicative of policy and market distortions, notably the presence of food subsidies in the context of fiscal constraints. Hence, both international prices and their volatility matter for domestic inflation, yet domestic factors also play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena I. Ianchovichina & Josef L. Loening & Christina A. Wood, 2014. "How Vulnerable are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1302-1319, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:50:y:2014:i:9:p:1302-1319
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2014.928698
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Onorante, Luca, 2010. "Food price pass-through in the euro area The role of asymmetries and non-linearities," Working Paper Series 1168, European Central Bank.
    5. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan, 2011. "Economics of the Arab awakening [in Arabic]: From revolution to transformation and food security," Policy briefs 18 AR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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