Unraveling Food Security, Drought and Conflict Exposure of Somali Households

This paper aims at disentangling the mutual link between conflict, drought and food security in Somalia. The analysis is conducted using various indicators for food security and on different sub-national aggregation levels. The evidence is based on data from three household-level surveys, collected in various regions in Somalia between 2013-2015. While the general these that drought triggers conflict is confirmed, a negative effect of both drought and conflict on non-food expenditures is found, suggesting that these households buy less non-food items when confronted with distressing situations. Increasing drought and conflict effects on food consumption scores and food expenditures are furthermore encountered for households in Somaliland and Puntland. We test the hypothesis of differing effects of conflict and drought for households in various food security situations, with different food consumption scores, and find empirical support for the existence of a potential ’food insecurity trap’.