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The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries

  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

  • Christian Dreger

This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. The shortrun adjustment pattern exhibits asymmetries and is particularly strong after positive shocks. Downward rigidities on wages may play a crucial role in this regard, as the relatively weak reactions of consumer prices after negative shocks are related to labour market institutions and public subsidies. The more rigid the regulations the more pronounced are the asymmetries. Robustness checks show that international price shocks do not affect GDP growth.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0448.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0448
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  1. Ansgar Belke & Joscha Beckmann & Florian Verheyen, 2012. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the EMU – New Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration Techniques for Fully Harmonized Data," ROME Working Papers 201203, ROME Network.
  2. Larson, Donald F. & Lampietti, Julian & Gouel, Christophe & Cafiero, Carlo & Roberts, John, 2012. "Food security and storage in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6031, The World Bank.
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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  6. Ianchovichina, Elena & Loening, Josef & Wood, Christina, 2012. "How vulnerable are Arab countries to global food price shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6018, The World Bank.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Urbain, J-P., 1991. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Papers 9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
  9. Baltzer, Kenneth, 2013. "International to domestic price transmission in fourteen developing countries during the 2007-08 food crisis," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  10. Ronald Albers & Marga Peeters, 2011. "Food and Energy Prices, Government Subsidies and Fiscal Balances in South Mediterranean Countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 437, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  11. Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Headey, Derek & Fan, Shenggen, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: The causes and consequences of surging food prices," IFPRI discussion papers 831, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  13. Joe Dewbre & Céline Giner & Wyatt Thompson & Martin Von Lampe, 2008. "High food commodity prices: will they stay? who will pay?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 393-403, November.
  14. Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2012. "An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters," CESifo Working Paper Series 3780, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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