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The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence for the MENA Countries

  • Ansgar Belke
  • Christian Dreger

This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. The short run adjustment pattern exhibits asymmetries and is particularly strong after positive shocks. Downward rigidities on wages may play a crucial role in this regard, as the relatively weak reactions of consumer prices after negative shocks are related to labour market institutions and public subsidies. The more rigid the regulations the more pronounced are the asymmetries. Robustness checks show that international price shocks do not affect GDP growth.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.430274.de/dp1332.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1332.

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Length: 25 p.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1332
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  1. Urbain, J-P., 1991. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Papers 9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
  2. Donald F. Larson & Julian Lampietti & Christophe Gouel & Carlo Cafiero & John Roberts, 2014. "Food Security and Storage in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 28(1), pages 48-73.
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  5. José De Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites The Dust? Oil Prices And Inflation," Working Papers wp238, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
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  7. Ianchovichina, Elena & Loening, Josef & Wood, Christina, 2012. "How vulnerable are Arab countries to global food price shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6018, The World Bank.
  8. Headey, Derek & Fan, Shenggen, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: The causes and consequences of surging food prices," IFPRI discussion papers 831, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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  10. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
  11. Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2012. "An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters," CESifo Working Paper Series 3780, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Baltzer, Kenneth, 2013. "International to domestic price transmission in fourteen developing countries during the 2007-08 food crisis," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  13. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
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  15. David Zilberman & Gal Hochman & Deepak Rajagopal & Steve Sexton & Govinda Timilsina, 2013. "The Impact of Biofuels on Commodity Food Prices: Assessment of Findings," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 275-281.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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