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Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

Author

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  • Canova, Fabio
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo

Abstract

We investigate the similarities of macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin and their convergence. A model with three indicators, covering the West, the East and the MENA portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Convergence and divergence coexist in the region and are reversible. Except for the West, domestic cyclical fluctuations are still due to national and idiosyncratic causes. The outlook for the next few years looks rosier for the MENA and the East blocks than for the West. JEL Classification: C11, C33, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2011. "Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Working Paper Series 1367, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111367
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1367.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, March.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0448 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0448, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods; business cycles; developing and developed countries; Mediterranean basin;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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