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How vulnerable are Arab countries to global food price shocks ?

Author

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  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Loening, Josef
  • Wood, Christina

Abstract

This paper presents new estimates of pass-through coefficients from international to domestic food prices by country in the Middle East and North Africa. The estimates indicate that, despite the use of food price subsidies and other government interventions, a rise in global food prices is transmitted to a significant degree into domestic food prices in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, although cross-country variation is significant. In nearly all countries, domestic food prices are highly downwardly rigid. The finding of asymmetric price transmission suggests that not only international food price levels matter, but also food price volatility. High food pass-through tends to increase inflation pressures, where food consumption shares are high. Domestic factors, often linked to storage, logistics, and procurement, have also played a major role in explaining high food inflation in the majority of countries in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ianchovichina, Elena & Loening, Josef & Wood, Christina, 2012. "How vulnerable are Arab countries to global food price shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6018, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices? A Global Price Transmission Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. repec:eee:wdevel:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:216-230 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    4. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-32, November.
    5. Carine Meyimdjui, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers halshs-01457366, HAL.
    6. Carine MEYIMDJUI, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers 201703, CERDI.
    7. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence for the MENA Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1332, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Bekkers, Eddy & Brockmeier, Martina & Francois, Joseph & Yang, Fan, 2017. "Local Food Prices and International Price Transmission," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 216-230.
    10. Christian Elleby, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," IFRO Working Paper 2015/01, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    11. repec:bla:revinw:v:64:y:2018:i:s1:p:s80-s113 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kelbore, Zerihun Getachew, 2013. "Transmission of World Food Prices to Domestic Market: The Ethiopian Case," MPRA Paper 49712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, March.
    14. Abhishek Chakravarty & Matthias Parey & Greg C. Wright, 2017. "The Human Capital Legacy of a Trade Embargo," 2017 Papers pch906, Job Market Papers.
    15. Efstratia Arampatzi & Martijn Burger & Elena Ianchovichina & Tina Röhricht & Ruut Veenhoven, 2018. "Unhappy Development: Dissatisfaction With Life on the Eve of the Arab Spring," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(s1), pages 80-113, October.
    16. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis," Discussion Papers 168591, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    17. Manoel Bittencourt & Rangan Gupta & Philton Makena & Lardo Stander, 2018. "Socio-Political Instability and Growth Dynamics," Working Papers 201855, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Moncarz, Pedro & Barone, Sergio & Calfat, Germán & Descalzi, Ricardo, 2014. "Poverty impacts of changes in the price of agricultural commodities: recent evidence for Argentina," IOB Working Papers 2014.09, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    19. Basher, Syed Abul & Raboy, David G. & Kaitibie, Simeon & Hossain, Ishrat, 2012. "The economics of food security in Arab micro states: preliminary evidence from micro data," MPRA Paper 39357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-13, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food&Beverage Industry; Markets and Market Access; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Food Security;

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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