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Price transmission from international to domestic markets

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  • Greb, Friederike
  • Jamora, Nelissa
  • Mengel, Carolin
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan
  • Wurriehausen, Nadine

Abstract

This study aims to improve our understanding of the extent and speed of the transmission of international cereal prices to local markets in developing countries. We analyse two samples of price transmission (PT) estimates, one extracted from a comprehensive literature sample of 31 published papers and studies on cereal price transmission and one containing of own estimates of cereal PT using the FAO’s GIEWS dataset. We also present the results of a non-parametric analysis of PT in which we analyse the share of periods in which domestic and international prices have jointly increased or decreased. We find a higher share of cointegrated commodity market pairs in the literature sample (79% compared to 43%). This may be due to publication bias. Cointegration is more prevalent for maize market pairs and less prevalent for rice market pairs. Both the literature and the GIEWS-based estimates point to average long-run PT coefficients of roughly 0.75 and average short-run adjustment parameters of roughly 0.09-0.11. In most cases domestic prices adjust to deviations from the long-run price relationship, but international prices do not. The only notable exception to this rule is rice, which suggests that the determination of international rice prices differs fundamentally from the determination of international wheat and maize prices. In a subsequent meta-regression analysis we measure how much of the variation in the samples of PT estimates can be explained by country- or product-specific factors. However, this analysis fails to generate compelling results. An analysis of domestic price volatility reveals that median volatility has increased since July 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Greb, Friederike & Jamora, Nelissa & Mengel, Carolin & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Wurriehausen, Nadine, 2012. "Price transmission from international to domestic markets," Discussion Papers 137101, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gagfdp:137101
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    Cited by:

    1. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 0. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 52.
    2. Laroche Dupraz, Catherine & Huchet Bourdon, Marilyne, 2014. "Domestic support and border measures: some instruments to reduce vulnerability of food security to trade in developing countries," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182691, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. M. Huchet Bourdon & C. Laroche Dupraz, 2014. "National food security: a framework for public policy and international trade," FOODSECURE Working papers 17, LEI Wageningen UR.
    4. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis," Discussion Papers 168591, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    5. Carolin Kouyaté & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2016. "Distance and Border Effects on Price Transmission: A Meta-analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 255-271, June.
    6. Laroche-Dupraz, Cathie & Huchet-Bourdon, Marilyne, 2016. "Agricultural support and vulnerability of food security to trade in developing countries," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 234941, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Bakucs, Zoltan & Ferto, Imre & Benedeka, Zsofia & Molnar, Adrienn, 2015. "Determinants of Horizontal Milk Producer Price Integration," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212042, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    9. C. Larochez-Dupraz & M. Huchet-Bourdon, 2016. "Agricultural support and vulnerability of food security to trade in developing countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(6), pages 1191-1206, December.
    10. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices? A Global Price Transmission Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Najibullah Hassanzoy & Shoichi Ito & Hiroshi Isoda & Yuichiro Amekawa, 2016. "A comparison of asymmetric price transmission from global to domestic markets between high and low quality grains: a case of Afghan rice markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 537-552.
    12. Catherine Laroche-Dupraz & Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon, 2013. "Impact of domestic support and border measures for developing countries’ food security," Post-Print hal-01123056, HAL.
    13. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Matthias Kalkuhl & Irfan Mujahid, 2015. "Food price volatility in developing countries – the role of trade and storage," EcoMod2015 8415, EcoMod.
    14. Hassanzoy, Najibullah & Ito, Shoichi & Isoda, Hiroshi & Amekawa, Yuichiro, 4. "The Effects Of Swings In Global Wheat Prices On The Domestic Markets In Afghanistan," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(4).
    15. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2014. "Implications of domestic price insulation for global food price behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 272-288.
    16. Hassanzoy, Najibullah & Ito, Shoichi & Isoda, Hiroshi, 4. "Global To Domestic Price Transmission Between The Segmented Cereals Markets: A Study Of Afghan Rice Markets," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(4).
    17. Sahito, Jam Ghulam Murtaza, 2015. "Market integration of wheat in Pakistan," Discussion Papers 72, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    18. Jamora, Nelissa & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von, 2012. "What world price?," Discussion Papers 142241, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    19. World Bank Group, 2014. "Myanmar : Rice Price Reduction and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21119, The World Bank.
    20. Haile, Mekbib Gebretsadik & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Volatility in the international food markets: implications for global agricultural supply and for market and price policy," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156097, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price transmission; cointegration; developing countries; agricultural trade; maize; rice; wheat; commodity prices; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Development; International Relations/Trade; C32 - Time-Series Models; Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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