IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/gagfdp/137101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price transmission from international to domestic markets

Author

Listed:
  • Greb, Friederike
  • Jamora, Nelissa
  • Mengel, Carolin
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan
  • Wurriehausen, Nadine

Abstract

This study aims to improve our understanding of the extent and speed of the transmission of international cereal prices to local markets in developing countries. We analyse two samples of price transmission (PT) estimates, one extracted from a comprehensive literature sample of 31 published papers and studies on cereal price transmission and one containing of own estimates of cereal PT using the FAO’s GIEWS dataset. We also present the results of a non-parametric analysis of PT in which we analyse the share of periods in which domestic and international prices have jointly increased or decreased. We find a higher share of cointegrated commodity market pairs in the literature sample (79% compared to 43%). This may be due to publication bias. Cointegration is more prevalent for maize market pairs and less prevalent for rice market pairs. Both the literature and the GIEWS-based estimates point to average long-run PT coefficients of roughly 0.75 and average short-run adjustment parameters of roughly 0.09-0.11. In most cases domestic prices adjust to deviations from the long-run price relationship, but international prices do not. The only notable exception to this rule is rice, which suggests that the determination of international rice prices differs fundamentally from the determination of international wheat and maize prices. In a subsequent meta-regression analysis we measure how much of the variation in the samples of PT estimates can be explained by country- or product-specific factors. However, this analysis fails to generate compelling results. An analysis of domestic price volatility reveals that median volatility has increased since July 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Greb, Friederike & Jamora, Nelissa & Mengel, Carolin & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Wurriehausen, Nadine, 2012. "Price transmission from international to domestic markets," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 137101, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gagfdp:137101
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.137101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/137101/files/GlobalFood_DP15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.137101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanjeev Gupta & Rolf A.E. Mueller, 1982. "Analyzing the pricing efficiency in spatial markets: Concept and application," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 9(3), pages 301-312.
    2. Teresa Serra & José M. Gil & Barry K. Goodwin, 2006. "Local polynomial fitting and spatial price relationships: price transmission in EU pork markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 33(3), pages 415-436, September.
    3. von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 1998. "Estimating Asymmetric Price Transmission with the Error Correction Representation: An application to the German Pork Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 25(1), pages 1-18.
    4. Philip C. Abbott & Linda M. Young, 1999. "Wheat-Importing State Trading Enterprises: Impacts on the World Wheat Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(2), pages 119-136, July.
    5. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria & Goodwin, Barry K., 2006. "Local Polynomial Fitting and Spatial Price Relationships: Price Transmission in the EU Markets for Pigmeat," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25388, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Joseph Amikuzuno & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2012. "Seasonal Variation in Price Transmission between Tomato Markets in Ghana," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(4), pages 669-686, August.
    8. Martin Ravallion, 1986. "Testing Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 102-109.
    9. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
    10. Jochen Meyer & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611, November.
    11. Ackerman, Karen Z. & Dixit, Praveen M., 1999. "An Introduction To State Trading In Agriculture," Agricultural Economic Reports 33909, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Linda M. Young, 1999. "Prevalence and Reform of State Trading Importers in World Grain Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(4), pages 351-362, December.
    13. Gloria González-Rivera & Steven M. Helfand, 2001. "The Extent, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration: A Multivariate Approach for the Brazilian Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 576-592.
    14. McNew, Kevin & Fackler, Paul L., 1997. "Testing Market Equilibrium: Is Cointegration Informative?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Teresa Serra & Barry Goodwin, 2003. "Price transmission and asymmetric adjustment in the Spanish dairy sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(18), pages 1889-1899.
    16. Pavel Vavra & Barry K. Goodwin, 2005. "Analysis of Price Transmission Along the Food Chain," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 3, OECD Publishing.
    17. Pier Giorgio Ardeni, 1989. "Does the Law of One Price Really Hold for Commodity Prices?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 661-669.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Fackler, Paul L. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2001. "Spatial price analysis," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 971-1024, Elsevier.
    20. Islam Hassouneh & Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2010. "Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 33-42, January.
    21. Young, Linda M., 1999. "Prevalence And Reform Of State Trading Importers In World Grain Markets," Research Discussion Papers 29241, Montana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Trade Research Center.
    22. Christopher B. Barrett & Jau Rong Li, 2002. "Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 292-307.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2017. "The analysis of market integration and price transmission – results and implications in an African context," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 56(2), March.
    2. Sahito, Jam Ghulam Murtaza, 2015. "Market integration of wheat in Pakistan," Discussion Papers 72, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    3. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, October.
    4. Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac, 2012. "Spatial Price Transmission in the Regional Maize Markets in Ghana," MPRA Paper 49720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Theofanous, Pamela & Tremma, Ourania, 2024. "Price linkages in major EU virgin olive oil markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    6. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(01), pages 1-28, April.
    7. Islam Hassouneh & Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2010. "Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 33-42, January.
    8. Jaramillo-Villanueva, J.L. & Sarker, R. & Cabas-Monje, J. & Portilla-Duran, L., 2018. "Vertical and Spatial Price Transmissi n in the Mexican and International Milk Market," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277283, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Félix Badolo, 2012. "Chocs de prix internationaux et transmission : cas du marché du riz au Burkina Faso," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(3), pages 317-346.
    10. Hassouneh, Islam & Radwan, Amr & Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Food scare crises and developing countries: The impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 264-274.
    11. Mohammad J Alam & Raghbendra Jha, 2016. "Asymmetric threshold vertical price transmission in wheat and flour markets in Dhaka (Bangladesh): seemingly unrelated regression analysis," ASARC Working Papers 2016-03, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    12. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    13. Amer Ait Sidhoum & Teresa Serra, 2016. "Volatility Spillovers in the Spanish Food Marketing Chain: The Case of Tomato," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 45-63, January.
    14. Nasreldin, Osama Ahmed & Devesa, Teresa Serra, 2014. "Price volatility of food staples. The case of millet in Niger," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182728, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Rashid, Shahidur, 2011. "Intercommodity price transmission and food price policies: An analysis of Ethiopian cereal markets," ESSP working papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Sekhar, C.S.C., 2012. "Agricultural market integration in India: An analysis of select commodities," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 309-322.
    17. Rosa, Franco & Weaver, Robert D. & Vasciaveo, Michela, 2015. "Structural Changes and Dairy Chain Efficiency in Italy," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, July.
    18. Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Pokrivcak, Jan, 2013. "Asymmetry in Price Transmission Mechanism: The Case of Slovak Potato Market," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 16(2), pages 1-8, September.
    19. Van Campenhout, Bjorn, 2007. "Modelling trends in food market integration: Method and an application to Tanzanian maize markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 112-127, February.
    20. Elena Claire Ricci & Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi, 2019. "The Effects of Agricultural Price Instability on Vertical Price Transmission: A Study of the Wheat Chain in Italy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gagfdp:137101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iagoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.