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Was the global food crisis really a crisis?: Simulations versus self-reporting

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  • Headey, Derek

Abstract

Estimates by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the World Bank concerning the welfare impact of the 2007/08 global food crisis conclude that between 75 million and 160 million people were thrown into hunger or poverty. However, these simulation-based approaches suffer from inherent deficiencies as well as insufficient coverage of the largest developing countries, especially China and India. This paper therefore assesses the usefulness of an alternative to simulation-based approaches, self-reported food insecurity data from the Gallup World Poll (GWP), a survey conducted before, during, and after the 2007/08 crisis. While these data are still less than ideal, we show that trends in self-reported food insecurity are statistically explained by both food inflation (positively) and economic growth (negatively). This validation motivates us to employ the GWP data as a barometer for the welfare impacts of the global food crisis. Our findings suggest that while there was tremendous variation in trends across countries, global self-reported food insecurity fell from 2005 to 2008, with the most plausible lower- and upper-bound estimates ranging from 60 million to 250 million fewer food-insecure people over that period. These results are clearly driven by rapid economic growth and very limited food price inflation in the world's most populous countries, particularly China and India. Hence, self-reported indicators of food insecurity reveal a trend opposite that of simulation-based approaches.

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  • Headey, Derek, 2011. "Was the global food crisis really a crisis?: Simulations versus self-reporting," IFPRI discussion papers 1087, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1087
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    Cited by:

    1. Haughton, Jonathan & Khandker, Shahidur R., 2014. "The Surprising Effects of the Great Recession: Losers and Winners in Thailand in 2008–09," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 77-92.
    2. Verpoorten, Marijke & Arora, Abhimanyu & Stoop, Nik & Swinnen, Johan, 2013. "Self-reported food insecurity in Africa during the food price crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 51-63.
    3. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    4. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    5. Aye, Goodness C., 2012. "The Long and Short Run Impacts of Food and Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Nigeria," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 125048, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Islam, Nurul, 2014. "Evidence-based research and its effect on policymaking:," IFPRI discussion papers 1378, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Arndt, Channing & Hussain, M. Azhar & Salvucci, Vincenzo & Østerdal, Lars Peter, 2016. "Effects of food price shocks on child malnutrition: The Mozambican experience 2008/2009," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Arndt, Channing & Hussain, M. Azhar & Salvucci, Vincenzo & Østerdal, Lars Peter, 2015. "Effects of Food Price Shocks on Child Malnutrition: The Mozambican Experience 2008/09," COHERE Working Paper 2015:4, University of Southern Denmark, COHERE - Centre of Health Economics Research.
    9. Sisira Jayasuriya & Purushottam Mudbhary & Sumiter Broca, 2013. "Food Security in Asia: Recent Experiences, Issues and Challenges," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(3), pages 275-288, September.
    10. Dorward, Andrew, 2013. "Agricultural labour productivity, food prices and sustainable development impacts and indicators," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 40-50.
    11. Francesco Caracciolo & Luigi Cembalo & Alessia Lombardi & Gary Thompson, 2014. "Distributional Effects of Maize Price Increases in Malawi," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 258-275, February.
    12. U. Martin Persson, 2015. "The impact of biofuel demand on agricultural commodity prices: a systematic review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(5), pages 410-428, September.
    13. repec:eee:wdevel:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:78-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. von Braun, Joachim & Tadesse, Getaw, 2012. "Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions," Discussion Papers 120021, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    15. Haughton, Jonathan & Khandker, Shahidur R., 2012. "The surprising effects of the great recession : losers and winners in Thailand in 2008-2009," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6255, The World Bank.

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    Keywords

    global food crisis; Hunger; Poverty; self-reported indicators;

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