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Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries

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  • Headey, Derek D.
  • Ruel, Marie T.

Abstract

The 21st Century has been marked by increased volatility in food prices, with global price spikes in 2007-08, 2010-11, and again in 2021-22. The impact of food inflation on the risk of child undernutrition is not well understood, however. This study explores the potential impacts of food inflation on wasting and stunting among 1.27 million pre-school children from 44 developing countries. On average, a 5 percent increase in the real price of food increases the risk of wasting by 9 percent and severe wasting by 14 percent. These risks apply to young infants, suggesting a prenatal pathway, as well as to older children who typically experience a deterioration in diet quality in the wake of food inflation. Male children and children from poor and rural landless households are more severely impacted. Food inflation during pregnancy and the first year after birth also increases the risk of stunting for children 2-5 years of age. This evidence provides a strong rationale for interventions to prevent food inflation and mitigate its impacts on vulnerable children and their mothers.

Suggested Citation

  • Headey, Derek D. & Ruel, Marie T., 2022. "Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries," IFPRI discussion papers 2146, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2146
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    Cited by:

    1. Albin Salmon & Vincent Fleuriet & Paul Vertier, 2025. "Currency Crises and Malnutrition," Working papers 1003, Banque de France.
    2. Arndt, Channing & Headey, Derek D. & Iruhiriye, Elyse & Jones, Eleanor & Martin, Will & Menon, Purnima & Resnick, Danielle & Suri, Shoba & Vos, Rob & Zorbas, Christina, 2024. "From promises to action: Analyzing global commitments on food security and diets since 2015," IFPRI discussion papers 2238, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Zorbas, Christina & Resnick, Danielle & Jones, Eleanor & Suri, Shoba & Iruhiriye, Elyse & Headey, Derek D. & Martin, Will & Vos, Rob & Arndt, Channing & Menon, Purnima, 2024. "From promises to action: Analyzing global commitments on food security and diets since 2015," IFPRI discussion papers 2238, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Algieri, Bernardina & Kornher, Lukas & von Braun, Joachim, 2024. "The Changing Drivers of Food Inflation – Macroeconomics, Inflation, and War," Discussion Papers 340561, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    5. V.M.E. Perego & M. Brown & F. Ceballos & M. Hernandez & M.L. Berrospi & L. Flores & E. Mora, 2024. "International prices and food security," World Bank Publications - Reports 41665, The World Bank Group.
    6. Headey, Derek D. & Venkat, Aishwarya, 2024. "Extreme weather and undernutrition: A critical but constructive review of the literature," IFPRI discussion papers 2236, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Adewopo, Julius Babatunde & Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes & Peter,Helen & Solano-Hermosilla,Gloria & Micale,Fabio, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of AI-Predicted and Crowdsourced Food Prices in an Economically Volatile Region," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10758, The World Bank.
    8. Berrospi, Maria Lucia & Brown, Melissa & Ceballos, Francisco & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Lopez, Elena Mora & Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia, 2024. "Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America," IFPRI discussion papers 2299, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Nes, Kjersti & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Yu, Jisang, 2025. "Economic impacts of the Indian ban on non-Basmati rice exports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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