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Dynamics of rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines

Author

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  • Christine D. Lasco
  • Robert J. Myers
  • Richard H. Bernsten

Abstract

Rice trade liberalization in the Philippines should decrease domestic rice prices impacting both agricultural wages and the welfare of agricultural wage earners. This study examines the short‐run and long‐run relationship between rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines using a neoclassical wage determination model. Three empirical frameworks are used—a cointegration/error correction framework, which assumes nonstationary variables in long‐run equilibrium, a first difference model that assumes nonstationary variables but no long‐run equilibrium, and an OLS framework that assumes the model variables are stationary. Conclusions are reasonably robust across the three empirical frameworks with wages adjusting positively to rice price changes with a short‐run elasticity of 0.29 to 0.57, and a long‐run elasticity of 0.70 to 1.0 in preferred models. An analysis of welfare implications suggests that although households that are heavily reliant on agricultural wages for income will be adversely affected by rice price decreases, other households will benefit.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine D. Lasco & Robert J. Myers & Richard H. Bernsten, 2008. "Dynamics of rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(3), pages 339-348, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:38:y:2008:i:3:p:339-348
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00304.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    2. David, Cristina C., 1997. "Agricultural policy and the WTO Agreement: The Philippine Case," Discussion Papers DP 1997-13, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. Rashid, Shahidur, 2002. "Dynamics of agricultural wage and rice price in Bangladesh: a re-examination," MSSD discussion papers 44, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2004. "Rice Reforms and Poverty in the Philippines: A CGE Analysis," Discussion Papers DP 2004-14, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Dawe, 2014. "Transmission of global food prices, supply response and impacts on the poor," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 5, pages 100-121, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Hanan G. Jacoby, 2016. "Food Prices, Wages, And Welfare In Rural India," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 159-176, January.
    3. Kym Anderson & Maros Ivanic & William J. Martin, 2014. "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 311-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Khadija Anjum & Leonora Angeles, 2025. "Farm workers’ food security during food price hikes: a political economy of landless rice-wheat farm labourers in Pakistan’s Punjab," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 42(3), pages 1361-1378, September.
    5. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Jo Swinnen, 2017. "EU policies and global food security," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 578549, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    6. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2014. "Short- and long-run impacts of food price changes on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7011, The World Bank.
    7. Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay & Bharat Ramaswami, 2026. "Spatial Effects of Import Competition: Edible Oils in India," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 57(1), January.
    8. Dawe, David & Maltsoglou, Irini, 2014. "Marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-55.
    9. Martey, Edward & Onumah, Justina Adwoa & Adusah-Poku, Frank, 2025. "Maize price Shocks, food consumption and the mediating role of access to market in Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D'une crise à l'autre : mesurer l'impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Working Papers hal-00637608, HAL.
    11. Hassan, Md. Fuad & Kornher, Lukas, "undated". "Farm Wage and Rice Price Dynamics in Bangladesh," Discussion Papers 287204, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    12. Vicente E. Montano, 2024. "Is there Price Distortion in the Philippine Rice Market: A Bayesian Discrete Wavelet Transform Analysis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(15), pages 275-287, December.
    13. Lodovico Muratori & Susanne Fricke, 2017. "Spatial price transmission and trade policies: new evidence for agricultural products from selected sub-Saharan African countries with high frequency data," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-006, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    14. Md. Fuad Hassan & Lukas Kornher, 2022. "Farm wage and Rice Price dynamics in Bangladesh," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(1), pages 127-146, February.
    15. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D’une crise à l’autre : Mesurer l’impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Larefi Working Papers 1106, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    16. Briones, Roehlano M., 2013. "Agriculture, Rural Employment, and Inclusive Growth," Discussion Papers DP 2013-39, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    17. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Was the Global Food Crisis Really a Crisis? Simulations versus Self-Reporting," Research briefs 17, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Derek D. Headey, 2013. "The Impact of the Global Food Crisis on Self-Assessed Food Security," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 27(1), pages 1-27.
    19. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    20. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D’une crise à l’autre : Mesurer l’impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Larefi Working Papers 201106, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    21. Balié, Jean & Minot, Nicholas & Valera, Harold Glenn A., 2021. "Distributional impacts of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 289-306.
    22. Headey, Derek D. & Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane & Worku, Ibrahim & Dereje, Mekdim & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, 2012. "Urban wage behavior and food price inflation: the case of Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 41, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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