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Farm Wage and Rice Price Dynamics in Bangladesh

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  • Hassan, Md. Fuad
  • Kornher, Lukas

Abstract

Concepts explaining the wage‐price nexus in Bangladesh are diverse and conflicting. A proper understanding of the relationship between food prices and rural wages is essential for planning policies in support of the rural poor. In exploring the link between food prices and rising agricultural wages, this study analyzes the dynamic relations between those two by using monthly data from 1994 to 2014. A standard vector error correction model (VECM) is implemented to determine the short‐run and long‐run relationships between wages and food prices in eight divisions in Bangladesh. In addition, we use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to estimate the pass‐through coefficients and to compare the short‐run effects of rice price and urban wage shocks on agricultural wages. We find statistical evidence for a structural break between January 2007 and January 2009 in the relationships of the variables in all divisions. After the structural break, in six out of eight divisions, any shock in rice prices does not transmit to the farm wages in the short‐run. Moreover, our findings show that in the long‐run food prices have become less influential in explaining the changes in rural wages while the influence of urban wages has become stronger in some divisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, Md. Fuad & Kornher, Lukas, 2019. "Farm Wage and Rice Price Dynamics in Bangladesh," Discussion Papers 287204, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubzefd:287204
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.287204
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    1. Dorward, Andrew, 2013. "Agricultural labour productivity, food prices and sustainable development impacts and indicators," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 40-50.
    2. Christine D. Lasco & Robert J. Myers & Richard H. Bernsten, 2008. "Dynamics of rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(3), pages 339-348, May.
    3. Hanan G. Jacoby, 2016. "Food Prices, Wages, And Welfare In Rural India," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 159-176, January.
    4. Zhang, Xiaobo & Rashid, Shahidur & Kaikaus, Ahmad & Ahmed, Akhter, 2021. "Escalation of real wages in Bangladesh: Is it the beginning of structural transformation?," IFPRI book chapters, in: Securing food for all in Bangladesh, chapter 10, pages 343-374, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Rashid, Shahidur, 2002. "Dynamics of agricultural wage and rice price in Bangladesh: a re-examination," MSSD discussion papers 44, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. AfDB AfDB, . "Improving Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture & Rural Development - An Action Plan for Africa (2011–2015) - Bulletin N°3," Global Strategy Implementation Bulletin, African Development Bank, number 368.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan, Md. Fuad & Kornher, Lukas, 2020. "Is mechanization in agriculture curse or blessing for the rural labor market in Bangladesh?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304543, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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