Food for Fuel: The Effect of the U.S. Biofuel Mandate on Poverty in India
Many countries have adopted energy policies that promote biofuels as a substitute for gasoline in transportation. For instance, more than 40% of U.S. grain is now used for energy and this share is expected to rise under the current Renewable Fuels Mandate. This paper examines the distributional effects of this energy mandate on India using micro-level survey data. First, we use a model with endogenous land use to estimate the effect of the biofuel policy on the world price of selected food commodities - rice, wheat, sugar and meat and dairy, which together provide almost 70% of Indian food calories. Their world prices are predicted to increase between 5% and 11%. Uncertainty in model parameters is incorporated using Monte Carlo techniques that generate standard errors on these price predictions. The effect of these price increases on household welfare is then estimated using data on consumption and wage incomes. We estimate pass-through elasticities from time-series data then compute the negative consumption effects and positive wage impacts under perfect and imperfect pass-through from world to domestic prices. Under perfect pass-through, the mandate leads to a reduction in rural poverty by about 39 million people, and an increase in the number of urban poor by 4 million people. Under imperfect price pass-through, both rural and urban poverty increase by a total of 8 million people. Our study suggests that the US biofuel mandate may lead to modest increase in food prices, but have sizable global welfare impacts, which may differ across rural and urban households.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002.
"Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall.
- Ruttan, Vernon W., 2002. "Productivity Growth In World Agriculture: Sources And Constraints," Staff Papers 14176, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
- Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Michel Moreaux & Linda Nøstbakken, 2012.
"The Long Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3876, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Helene Hubert & Michel Moreaux & Linda Nostbakken, . "The Long Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0805, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Hubert, Marie-Helene & Nostbakken, Linda, 2012. "The Long Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices," Working Papers 2012-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
- Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
- Campa, Jose M. & Gonzalez, Jose M., 2002.
"Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area,"
IESE Research Papers
D/479, IESE Business School.
- Campa, Jose Manuel & Gonzalez Minguez, Jose M., 2006. "Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-145, January.
- Campa, José Manuel & González Mìnguez, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Differences in Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xiaoguang Chen & Haixiao Huang & Madhu Khanna, 2012.
"Land-Use And Greenhouse Gas Implications Of Biofuels: Role Of Technology And Policy,"
Climate Change Economics (CCE),
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1250013-1-1.
- Chen, Xiaoguang & Huang, Haixiao & Khanna, Madhu, 2011. "Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Implications of Biofuels: Role of Technology and Policy," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103216, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Guido Porto, 2010.
"International Market Access and Poverty in Argentina,"
CEDLAS, Working Papers
0096, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
- Guido Porto, 2010. "International Market Access and Poverty in Argentina," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 396-407, 05.
- Chen, Xiaoguang & Huang, Haixiao & Khanna, Madhu & Önal, Hayri, 2014. "Alternative transportation fuel standards: Welfare effects and climate benefits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 241-257.
- Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magné, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2008.
"A dynamic model of food and clean energy,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1181-1203, April.
- Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magné, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2006. "A Dynamic Model of Food and Clean Energy," IDEI Working Papers 403, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- CHAKRAVORTY Ujjayant & MAGNE Bertrand & MOREAUX Michel, 2006. "A dynamic model of food and clean energy," LERNA Working Papers 06.10.203, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
- Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2004.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ira N. Gang & Kunal Sen & Myeong-Su Yun, 2008. "Poverty In Rural India: Caste And Tribe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(1), pages 50-70, 03.
- Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Sohngen, Brent, 2008. "Land Use Modeling in Recursively-Dynamic GTAP Framework," GTAP Working Papers 2609, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Gouel, Christophe & Hertel, Thomas, 2006. "Introducing Forest Access Cost Functions into a General Equilibrium Model," GTAP Research Memoranda 2215, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Wallace E. Tyner & Dileep K. Birur, 2010. "The Global Impacts of Biofuel Mandates," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-100.
- Bento, Antonio M. & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Jacobsen, Mark R. & von Haefen, Roger H., 2007.
"Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased U.S. Gasoline Taxes,"
127021, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Antonio M. Bento & Lawrence H. Goulder & Mark R. Jacobsen & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased US Gasoline Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 667-99, June.
- Ural Marchand, Beyza, 2012.
"Tariff pass-through and the distributional effects of trade liberalization,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 265-281.
- Ural Marchand, Beyza, 2011. "Tariff Pass-Through and the Distributional Effects of Trade Liberalization," Working Papers 2011-22, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
- Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010.
"The Developing World Is Poorer Than We Thought, but No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625, November.
- Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4703, The World Bank.
- Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 1-37, Supplemen.
- Mark W. Rosegrant & Tingju Zhu & Siwa Msangi & Timothy Sulser, 2008. "Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 495-505.
- Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn, 2003. "An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 448-457.
- Catherine Hausman & Maximilian Auffhammer & Peter Berck, 2012. "Farm Acreage Shocks and Crop Prices: An SVAR Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Biofuels," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 117-136, September.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2014. "Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 555-561.
- Cranfield, J. A. L. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Estimating consumer demands across the development spectrum: maximum likelihood estimates of an implicit direct additivity model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 289-307, August.
- de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2010. "The Global Food Crisis and Guatemala: What Crisis and for Whom?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1328-1339, September.
- Desai, Sonalde & Dubey, Amaresh & Joshi, Brij Lal & Sen, Mitali & Sharif, Abusaleh & Vanneman, Reeve, 2010. "Human Development in India: Challenges for a Society in Transition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198065128, March.
- Ravallion, Martin, 1990. "Rural Welfare Effects of Food Price Changes under Induced Wage Responses: Theory and Evidence for Bangladesh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 574-85, July.
- Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013.
"Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-95, October.
- Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2010. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," NBER Working Papers 15921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:inr:wpaper:26086 is not listed on IDEAS
- Schade, Burkhard & Wiesenthal, Tobias, 2011. "Biofuels: A model based assessment under uncertainty applying the Monte Carlo method," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 92-126, January.
- Nicita, Alessandro, 2009. "The price effect of tariff liberalization: Measuring the impact on household welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 19-27, May.
- Gaurav Datt & Jennifer Olmsted, 2004. "Induced Wage Effects of Changes in Food Prices in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 137-166.
- Madhu Khanna & David Zilberman, 2012. "Modeling The Land-Use And Greenhouse-Gas Implications Of Biofuels," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1250016-1-1.
- Porto, Guido G., 2006.
"Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 140-160, September.
- Guido G. Porto, 2003. "Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3137, The World Bank.
- Ravindranath, N.H. & Sita Lakshmi, C. & Manuvie, Ritumbra & Balachandra, P., 2011. "Biofuel production and implications for land use, food production and environment in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5737-5745, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.