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On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Gomes

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emmanuel Hache
  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Anthony Paris

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Many developed countries promote the use of biofuels for environmental concerns, leading to a rise in the price of agricultural commodities utilized in their production. Such environmental policies have major effects on the economy of emerging and developing countries whose activity is highly dependent on agricultural commodities involved in biofuel production. This paper tackles this issue by examining the price impact of biofuels on the current account for a panel of 16 developing and emerging countries, and the potential nonlinear effect exerted by the price of oil on this relationship. Relying on the estimation of panel smooth-transition regression models, we show that positive shocks in the price of biofuels lead to a current-account improvement for agricultural commodity exporters and producers only when the price of oil is below a certain threshold. When the price of oil exceeds this threshold, uctuations in the price of biofuels no longer affect the current account. These findings illustrate that a rise in the price of oil exerts a negative effect on the trade balance of commodity exporters which are also oil importers, dampening the biofuel price impact on the current-account position.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Gomes & Emmanuel Hache & Valérie Mignon & Anthony Paris, 2017. "On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter?," Working Papers hal-04141639, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141639
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Chaya, Wirawat & Jesdapipat, Sitanon & Tripetchkul, Sudarut & Santitaweeroek, Yuwanan & Gheewala, Shabbir H., 2019. "Challenges and pitfalls in implementing Thailand's ethanol plan: Integrated policy coherence and gap analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1050-1063.
    4. Katarzyna Twarowska-Mol & Małgorzata Twarowska-Ratajczak, 2021. "Analysis of Factors Determining Global Payment Imbalances in 2000-2019," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 455-478.
    5. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Liya Hau & Huiming Zhu & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ke Huang, 2023. "Quantile Dependence between Crude Oil and China’s Biofuel Feedstock Commodity Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Halimatussadiah, A. & Nainggolan, D. & Yui, S. & Moeis, F.R. & Siregar, A.A., 2021. "Progressive biodiesel policy in Indonesia: Does the Government's economic proposition hold?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biofuels; Oil; Current account; Panel smooth transition regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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