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Food for fuel: The effect of the US biofuel mandate on poverty in India

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  • Ujjayant Chakravorty
  • Marie‐Hélène Hubert
  • Beyza Ural Marchand

Abstract

More than 40% of US grain is used for energy due to the Renewable Fuel Mandate (RFS). There are no studies of the global distributional consequences of this purely domestic policy. Using micro‐level survey data, we trace the effect of the RFS on world food prices and their impact on household level consumption and wage incomes in India. We first develop a partial equilibrium model to estimate the effect of the RFS on the price of selected food commodities—rice, wheat, corn, sugar, and meat and dairy, which together provide almost 70% of Indian food calories. Our model predicts that world prices for these commodities rise by 8–16% due to the RFS. We estimate the price pass‐through to domestic Indian prices and the effect of the price shock on household welfare through consumption and wage incomes. Poor rural households suffer significant welfare losses due to higher prices of consumption goods, which are regressive. However, they benefit from a rise in wage incomes, mainly because most of them are employed in agriculture. Urban households also bear the higher cost of food, but do not see a concomitant rise in wages because only a small fraction of them work in food‐related industries. Welfare losses are greater among urban households. However, more poor people in India live in villages, so rural poverty impacts are larger in magnitude. We estimate that the mandate leads to about 25 million new poor: 21 million in rural and 4 million in the urban population.

Suggested Citation

  • Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie‐Hélène Hubert & Beyza Ural Marchand, 2019. "Food for fuel: The effect of the US biofuel mandate on poverty in India," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), pages 1153-1193, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:10:y:2019:i:3:p:1153-1193
    DOI: 10.3982/QE942
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    Cited by:

    1. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    2. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Pipil, Dhriti Mukherjee, 2024. "Edible Oil Self-Sufficiency in India: A PCA-VECM Approach," MPRA Paper 123540, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2024.
    4. Das, Prantika & Jha, Chandan Kumar & Saxena, Satyam & Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar, 2024. "Can biofuels help achieve sustainable development goals in India? A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Gomes, Gabriel & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie & Paris, Anthony, 2018. "On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 60-67.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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