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Jumpy or Kinky? Regression Discontinuity without the Discontinuity

Listed author(s):
  • Yingying Dong

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Regression Discontinuity (RD) models identify local treatment effects by associating a discrete change in the mean outcome with a corresponding discrete change in the probability of treatment at a known threshold of a running variable. This paper shows that it is possible to identify the RD model treatment effect without a discontinuity. In particular, identification can come from a slope change (a kink) instead of a discrete level change (a jump) in the treatment probability. The intuition is based on L'hopital's rule. The identification results can also be interpreted using instrumental variables models. Estimators are proposed that can be applied in the presence or absence of a discontinuity, by exploiting either a jump, or a kink, or both. The proposed estimators are applied to investigate the "retirement-consumption puzzle." In particular, I estimate the impact of retirement on household food consumption by exploiting changes in the retirement probability at 62, the early retirement age in the US.

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File URL: http://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/workingpapers/2011-2012/dong-07.pdf
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Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 111207.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:111207
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Irvine, CA 92697-3125

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Web page: http://www.economics.uci.edu/

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  1. Erich Battistin & Agar Brugiavini & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2009. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2209-2226, December.
  2. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2010. "Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 377-394, 01.
  3. Helena Skyt Nielsen & Torben Sørensen & Christopher Taber, 2010. "Estimating the Effect of Student Aid on College Enrollment: Evidence from a Government Grant Policy Reform," NBER Chapters,in: Income Taxation, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 185-215 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. James J. Heckman, 2010. "Building Bridges between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 356-398, June.
  5. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
  6. Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 9586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Brian A. Jacob & Lars Lefgren, 2004. "Remedial Education and Student Achievement: A Regression-Discontinuity Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 226-244, February.
  8. repec:oup:restud:v:79:y::i:3:p:933-959 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
  10. David Card & Carlos Dobkin & Nicole Maestas, 2008. "The Impact of Nearly Universal Insurance Coverage on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Medicare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2242-2258, December.
  11. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
  12. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2015. "Identifying the Effect of Changing the Policy Threshold in Regression Discontinuity Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1081-1092, December.
  13. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
  14. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2011. "Regression Discontinuity Marginal Threshold Treatment Effects," Working Papers 111205, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  15. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
  16. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2007. "Retirement Consumption: Insights from a Survey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 265-274, May.
  17. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
  18. B. Douglas Bernheim & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Weinberg, 2001. "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 832-857, September.
  19. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  20. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
  21. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
  22. Jonathan Guryan, 2001. "Does Money Matter? Regression-Discontinuity Estimates from Education Finance Reform in Massachusetts," NBER Working Papers 8269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Emma Aguila & Orazio P. Attanasio & Costas Meghir, 2008. "Changes in Consumption at Retirement," Working Papers 621, RAND Corporation.
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