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World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand

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  • Peter Warr

Abstract

A multisectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Thai economy is used to analyze the implications of recent increases in international food prices. Higher food prices, especially staple grains, worsen poverty incidence in Thailand despite the presence of large numbers of poor farmers, many of whom benefit from higher prices. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers is dominated by the negative effect on poor consumers. Of the recent price increases for rice, sugar, cassava, maize, soybeans, urea, and petroleum, the increases in rice prices raise poverty incidence the most, despite Thailand being the world's largest rice exporter.

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  • Peter Warr, 2008. "World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 525-537, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:39:y:2008:i:s1:p:525-537
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00357.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00357.x
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    1. Warr, Peter G., 2005. "Food policy and poverty in Indonesia: a general equilibrium analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1-23.
    2. Peter G. Warr, 2001. "Welfare Effects of an Export Tax: Thailand's Rice Premium," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 903-920.
    3. Warr, Peter G., 2005. "Food Policy And Poverty: A General Equilibrium Analysis For Indonesia," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 139296, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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    1. Dimova, Ralitza & Gbakou, Monnet, 2013. "The Global Food Crisis: Disaster, Opportunity or Non-event? Household Level Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 185-196.
    2. Peter Warr, 2014. "Food insecurity and its determinants," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 519-537, October.
    3. Elleby, Christian, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2009. "International food prices and poverty in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2009-19, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    5. Estrades, Carmen & Terra, María Inés, 2012. "Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-66.
    6. Derek Headey & Sangeetha Malaiyandi & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 217-228, November.
    7. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "Fertilizer subsidies and food self-sufficiency in Indonesia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(5), pages 571-588, September.
    8. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Was the global food crisis really a crisis?: Simulations versus self-reporting," IFPRI discussion papers 1087, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Ian Coxhead & Vu Hoang Linh & Le Dong Tam, 2012. "Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 575-592, September.
    10. Craig Sugden, 2009. "Responding to High Commodity Prices," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 23(1), pages 79-105, May.
    11. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 164, Center for Global Development.
    12. Warr, Peter & Yusuf, Arief Anshory, 2014. "World food prices and poverty in Indonesia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(1), January.
    13. David Dawe, 2014. "Transmission of global food prices, supply response and impacts on the poor," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 5, pages 100-121, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Dawe, David & Maltsoglou, Irini, 2014. "Marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-55.
    15. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2021. "Pandemic-induced de-urbanisation in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2021-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    16. Warr, Peter G., 2009. "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in Thailand: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52791, World Bank.
    17. Jonathan Brooks & Alan Matthews, 2015. "Trade Dimensions of Food Security," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 77, OECD Publishing.
    18. Andy McKay & Finn Tarp, 2014. "Distributional Impacts of the 2008 Global Food Price Spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. McKay, Andy & Tarp, Finn, 2014. "Distributional impacts of the 2008 global food price spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Maurizio Bussolo & Patrizia Luongo, 2020. "The distributive impact of terms of trade shocks: The case of the oil price changes in Russia," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 487-513, July.
    21. Pham Van Ha & Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che & Bui Trinh, 2015. "Rice Production, Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 280-307, June.
    22. von Braun, Joachim & Tadesse, Getaw, 2012. "Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions," Discussion Papers 120021, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    23. Xiangjun Wu & Juan Xu, 2021. "Drivers of food price in China: A heterogeneous panel SVAR approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 67-79, January.

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