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ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2018: Germany’s Economy Cools Down

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Marcell Göttert
  • Christian Grimme
  • Carla Krolage
  • Stefan Lautenbacher
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Sebastian Link
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Ann-Christin Rathje
  • Magnus Reif
  • Radek Šauer
  • Tobias Schuler
  • Marc Stöckli
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Anna Wolf

Abstract

On 13 December 2018, the ifo Institute presented its economic forecast for 2018, 2019 and 2020. The boom is over and Germany’s economy is beginning to cool down. On top of problems in the automotive industry, foreign sales markets, which are exposed to considerable economic risks, will also lose momentum. For this reason, ifo has scaled back its economic forecast for autumn 2018 significantly. It expects price-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 1.5% in 2018, with growth slowing to 1.1% in 2019. Thanks to the higher number of working days, the increase in gross domestic product will accelerate to 1.6% in 2020. Adjusted for calendar effects, however, this rate will only be 1.3%. All in all, the over-utilisation of German economic capacities is likely to diminish, while the rise in employment will slow down.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Radek Šauer &, 2018. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2018: Germany’s Economy Cools Down," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(24), pages 28-82, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:24:p:28-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Przemyslaw Brandt, 2019. "Konjunkturumfrage im Fokus: Architektur- und Ingenieurbüros – das EuGH Urteil zur HOAI trübt die Geschäftsaussichten ein," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(20), pages 37-38, October.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2020. "Economic Business Cycle 2019: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 51-57, January.
    3. Christian Grimme & Radek Šauer & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "Auswirkungen möglicher Währungskonflikte auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 109.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2019. "Risk of recession for the German economy significantly higher," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(05), pages 28-31, March.
    5. Przemyslaw Brandt & Simon Litsche & Sabine Rumscheidt & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Sector Developments at a Glance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 78-82, January.
    6. Sabine Rumscheidt, 2020. "Industries in Focus: Wholesale Trade with Chemical Products," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(03), pages 64-67, March.
    7. Christian Grimme, 2020. "On Global Current Account Balances in 2019," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 49-53, February.
    8. Magnus Reif & Arno Städtler, 2020. "Weaker Growth in Equipment Investment," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 40-44, January.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Business Cycle 2018: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    10. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
    11. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Anna-Pauliina, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur ohne Schwung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(12), pages 25-78, June.
    12. João Leal & Robert Lehmann & Bertrand Marc & Timo Wollmershäuser & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2019. "The Weakness of the German Car Industry and its Sectoral and Global Impacts," EconPol Policy Brief 18, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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