IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v72y2019i05p28-31.html

Rezessionsrisiko der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich erhöht

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Carstensen
  • Magnus Reif
  • Maik Wolters

Abstract

Ist die konjunkturelle Abkühlung der deutschen Wirtschaft in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2018 ein Hinweis auf eine kurzfristige konjunkturelle Schwächephase, oder ist eine länger anhaltende Rezession zu erwarten? Kai Carstensen, Universität zu Kiel, Magnus Reif, ifo Institut, und Maik Wolters, Universität Jena, schätzen das aktuelle Rezessionsrisiko mit Hilfe eines dynamischen, nichtlinearen Faktormodells. Ihre Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Gefahr einer Rezession zurzeit deutlich erhöht ist und auch in den kommenden Quartalen mit einer konjunkturellen Schwächephase zu rechnen ist. Insbesondere haben die seit einiger Zeit abwärts gerichteten Befragungsdaten deuten darauf hin.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Carstensen & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2019. "Rezessionsrisiko der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich erhöht," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(05), pages 28-31, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:05:p:28-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2019-05-carstensen-reif-wolters-rezessionsgefahr-2019-03-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Florian Eckert & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Heiner Mikosch & Stefan Neuwirth & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur stabilisiert sich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(24), pages 27-89, December.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Radek Šauer &, 2018. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2018: Deutsche Konjunktur kühlt sich ab," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(24), pages 28-82, December.
    3. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabine Rumscheidt, 2020. "Branchen im Fokus: Großhandel mit chemischen Erzeugnissen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(03), pages 64-67, March.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2018: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2020. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2019: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 51-57, January.
    4. Przemyslaw Brandt & Simon Litsche & Sabine Rumscheidt & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Branchenentwicklungen im Überblick," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 78-82, January.
    5. Peng Qin & Manying Bai, 2022. "Does oil price uncertainty matter in stock market volatility forecasting?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    7. Timo Wollmershäuser & Przemyslaw Brandt & Christian Grimme & Max Lay & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Pauliina Sandqvist & Radek Šauer & Marc, 2021. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Spannungsfeld zwischen Öffnungen und Lieferengpässen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(Sonderaus), pages 01-52, June.
    8. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Benjamin Born & Zeno Enders & Manuel Menkhoff & Gernot J. Müller & Knut Niemann & Gernot Müller, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CESifo Working Paper Series 10192, CESifo.
    10. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    11. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    12. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
    13. Yanlin Shi, 2023. "Long memory and regime switching in the stochastic volatility modelling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 320(2), pages 999-1020, January.
    14. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    15. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
    16. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88, April.
    17. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    19. Przemyslaw Brandt, 2019. "Konjunkturumfrage im Fokus: Architektur- und Ingenieurbüros – das EuGH Urteil zur HOAI trübt die Geschäftsaussichten ein," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(20), pages 37-38, October.
    20. Rahul Billakanti & Minchul Shin, 2026. "At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction," Papers 2603.07813, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:05:p:28-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.