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Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Dorn
  • Clemens Fuest
  • Marcell Göttert
  • Carla Krolage
  • Stefan Lautenbacher
  • Sebastian Link
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Magnus Reif
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Marc Stöckli
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Nach Schätzungen des ifo Instituts werden die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten der wegen der Corona-Epidemie erfolgenden partiellen Stilllegung der Wirtschaft bei einer Shutdown-Dauer – je nach zugrunde gelegtem Szenario – von zwei Monaten zwischen 255 und 495 Mrd. Euro betragen. Die Wachstumsrate des BIP wird zwischen 7,2 und 11,2 Prozentpunkten sinken. Bei drei Monaten erreichen die Kosten bereits 354 bis 729 Mrd. Euro. Am Arbeitsmarkt könnten bis zu 1,8 Mio. sozialversicherungspflichtige Arbeitsplätze abgebaut werden und mehr als 6 Mio. Arbeitnehmer von Kurzarbeit betroffen sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:04:p:29-35
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2020-04-fuest-eal-volkswirtschaftliche-kosten-corona-2020-04-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Radek Šauer &, 2018. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2018: Deutsche Konjunktur kühlt sich ab," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(24), pages 28-82, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronny Freier & René Geißler, 2020. "Kommunale Finanzen in der Corona-Krise: Effekte und Reaktionen [Municipal Finances in the Corona Crisis: Effects and Reactions]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(5), pages 356-363, May.
    2. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany," Working Papers 2006, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    3. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland [Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(4), pages 272-276, April.
    4. Klaus-Dirk Henke, 2020. "Das EU-Budget in der Corona-Krise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 407-410, June.
    5. Heinz Gebhardt & Lars-H. Siemers, 2020. "Staatsfinanzen in der Corona-Krise: Günstige Bedingungen sichern Handlungsfähigkeit [The German Public Finances in the COVID-19 Pandemic]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 501-506, July.
    6. Przemyslaw Brandt, 2020. "Branchen im Fokus: Gastgewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 60-62, April.
    7. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Konjunkturumfragen im Fokus: Deutsche Wirtschaft in Corona-Schockstarre," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 44-47, April.
    8. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2020. "Corona-Pandemie: Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 36-43, April.
    9. Johannes Blum & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Fabian Ruthardt, 2020. "Ökonomenpanel: Wie bewerten Ökonom*innen die wirtschaftspolitischen Reaktionen auf die Coronakrise?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 48-51, April.

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