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Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Dorn
  • Clemens Fuest
  • Marcell Göttert
  • Carla Krolage
  • Stefan Lautenbacher
  • Sebastian Link
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Magnus Reif
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Marc Stöckli
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Nach Schätzungen des ifo Instituts werden die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten der wegen der Corona-Epidemie erfolgenden partiellen Stilllegung der Wirtschaft bei einer Shutdown-Dauer – je nach zugrunde gelegtem Szenario – von zwei Monaten zwischen 255 und 495 Mrd. Euro betragen. Die Wachstumsrate des BIP wird zwischen 7,2 und 11,2 Prozentpunkten sinken. Bei drei Monaten erreichen die Kosten bereits 354 bis 729 Mrd. Euro. Am Arbeitsmarkt könnten bis zu 1,8 Mio. sozialversicherungspflichtige Arbeitsplätze abgebaut werden und mehr als 6 Mio. Arbeitnehmer von Kurzarbeit betroffen sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:04:p:29-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Radek Šauer &, 2018. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2018: Deutsche Konjunktur kühlt sich ab," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(24), pages 28-82, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland [Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(4), pages 272-276, April.
    2. Ruediger Bachmann & Kai Carstensen & Stefan Lautenbacher & Martin Schneider, 2020. "Unsicherheit und Beschäftigungsabbau in der Coronakrise," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(09), May.
    3. Martin Braml & Feodora Teti & Rahel Aichele, 2020. "Apotheke der Welt oder am Tropf der Weltwirtschaft? Deutschlands Außenhandel auf dem Markt für Arzneien und medizinische Ausrüstungen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 35-42, May.
    4. Simon Litsche & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Konjunkturumfragen im Fokus: Coronakrise trifft deutsche Wirtschaft mit voller Wucht," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 57-61, May.
    5. Ronny Freier & René Geißler, 2020. "Kommunale Finanzen in der Corona-Krise: Effekte und Reaktionen [Municipal Finances in the Corona Crisis: Effects and Reactions]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(5), pages 356-363, May.
    6. Donsimoni Jean Roch & Glawion René & Plachter Bodo & Wälde Klaus, 2020. "Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 181-216, June.
    7. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stöckli & Sebastian Binder & Berit Lange & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Andreas Peichl & Clemens Fuest & Michael Meyer-Hermann, 2020. "Das gemeinsame Interesse von Gesundheit und Wirtschaft: Eine Szenarienrechnung zur Eindämmung der Corona- Pandemie," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(06), May.
    8. Werner Gleißner & Florian Follert & Frank Daumann & Frank Leibbrand, 2021. "EU’s Ordering of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses: Political Decision-Making under Uncertainty," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Nach dem großen Einbruch: Ein Konjunkturprogramm zur Stützung und Erholung der Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(07), pages 03-12, July.
    10. Klaus-Dirk Henke, 2020. "Das EU-Budget in der Corona-Krise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 407-410, June.
    11. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Konjunkturumfragen im Fokus: Deutsche Wirtschaft in Corona-Schockstarre," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 44-47, April.
    12. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2020. "Corona-Pandemie: Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 36-43, April.
    13. Ronja Demel & Francesco Grassi & Yasaman Rafiee & Michael R. Waldmann & Annekathrin Schacht, 2022. "How German and Italian Laypeople Reason about Distributive Shortages during COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Katrin Demmelhuber & Felix Leiss & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Die Auswirkungen der Coronakrise auf die deutsche Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(07), May.
    15. Heinz Gebhardt & Lars-H. Siemers, 2020. "Staatsfinanzen in der Corona-Krise: Günstige Bedingungen sichern Handlungsfähigkeit [The German Public Finances in the COVID-19 Pandemic]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 501-506, July.
    16. Florian Dorn & Janos Gabler & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Andreas Peichl & Tobias Raabe & Klara Röhrl, 2020. "Wenn Menschen (keine) Menschen treffen: Simulation der Auswirkungen von Politikmaßnahmen zur Eindämmung der zweiten Covid-19-Welle," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(15), November.
    17. Johannes Blum & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2020. "Ökonomenpanel: Wie bewerten Ökonom*innen die wirtschaftspolitischen Reaktionen auf die Coronakrise?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 48-51, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Soziale Kosten; Epidemie; Beschäftigungseffekt; Makroökonomie; Wirtschaftlicher Schaden; Deutschland; Shutdown;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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