IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/wirtsc/v100y2020i4d10.1007_s10273-020-2631-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland
[Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Roch Donsimoni

    (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)

  • René Glawion

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Bodo Plachter

    (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)

  • Klaus Wälde

    (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)

Abstract

Zusamenfassung Die COVID-19-Epidemie wird in Deutschland im optimistischen Szenario mindestens bis Juli 2020 dauern, im normalen Szenario bis August. Öffentliche Maßnahmen wie Kontaktverbote flachen den Anstieg der Zahl der Erkrankungen temporär ab und verlängern die Dauer der Epidemie. In der Spitze sind im optimistischen Szenario gleichzeitig bis zu 200.000 Menschen erkrankt, im normalen Szenario liegen die Werte um 1 Million. Langfristig werden im normalen Szenario 6 % der Bevölkerung (gemeldet) erkrankt gewesen sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland [Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(4), pages 272-276, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:100:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10273-020-2631-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
    2. Donsimoni Jean Roch & Glawion René & Plachter Bodo & Wälde Klaus, 2020. "Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 181-216, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Constantin Weiser & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Should contact bans be lifted in Germany?," Working Papers 2008, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    2. Donsimoni, Jean Roch & Glawion, René & Plachter, Bodo & Weiser, Constantin & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13151, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Quaas, Georg, 2021. "The measurement of the reproduction number," Working Papers 171, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katrin Demmelhuber & Felix Leiss & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Die Auswirkungen der Coronakrise auf die deutsche Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(07), May.
    2. Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce Covid-19 Cases in Germany - A Synthetic Control Method Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8479, CESifo.
    3. Busch, Christopher & Ludwig, Alexander & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2020. "Emerging evidence of a silver lining: A ridge walk to avoid an economic catastrophe in Italy and Spain," SAFE White Paper Series 67, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Ronja Demel & Francesco Grassi & Yasaman Rafiee & Michael R. Waldmann & Annekathrin Schacht, 2022. "How German and Italian Laypeople Reason about Distributive Shortages during COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Donsimoni Jean Roch & Glawion René & Plachter Bodo & Wälde Klaus, 2020. "Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 181-216, June.
    6. Heinz Gebhardt & Lars-H. Siemers, 2020. "Staatsfinanzen in der Corona-Krise: Günstige Bedingungen sichern Handlungsfähigkeit [The German Public Finances in the COVID-19 Pandemic]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 501-506, July.
    7. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stöckli & Sebastian Binder & Berit Lange & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Andreas Peichl & Clemens Fuest & Michael Meyer-Hermann, 2020. "Das gemeinsame Interesse von Gesundheit und Wirtschaft: Eine Szenarienrechnung zur Eindämmung der Corona- Pandemie," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(06), May.
    8. Simon Litsche & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Konjunkturumfragen im Fokus: Coronakrise trifft deutsche Wirtschaft mit voller Wucht," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 57-61, May.
    9. Florian Dorn & Janos Gabler & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Andreas Peichl & Tobias Raabe & Klara Röhrl, 2020. "Wenn Menschen (keine) Menschen treffen: Simulation der Auswirkungen von Politikmaßnahmen zur Eindämmung der zweiten Covid-19-Welle," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(15), November.
    10. Werner Gleißner & Florian Follert & Frank Daumann & Frank Leibbrand, 2021. "EU’s Ordering of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses: Political Decision-Making under Uncertainty," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-12, February.
    11. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    12. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Nach dem großen Einbruch: Ein Konjunkturprogramm zur Stützung und Erholung der Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(07), pages 03-12, July.
    13. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2020. "Ein SIRD-Modell zur Infektionsdynamik mit endogener Behandlungskapazität und Lehren für Corona-Statistiken," IMFS Working Paper Series 141, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    14. Ronny Freier & René Geißler, 2020. "Kommunale Finanzen in der Corona-Krise: Effekte und Reaktionen [Municipal Finances in the Corona Crisis: Effects and Reactions]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(5), pages 356-363, May.
    15. Klaus-Dirk Henke, 2020. "Das EU-Budget in der Corona-Krise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 407-410, June.
    16. Johannes Blum & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2020. "Ökonomenpanel: Wie bewerten Ökonom*innen die wirtschaftspolitischen Reaktionen auf die Coronakrise?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 48-51, April.
    17. Klaus Wälde, 2020. "How to remove the testing bias in CoV-2 statistics," Working Papers 2021, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    18. Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Simeon Schächtele, 2020. "How Effective Are Social Distancing Policies? Evidence on the Fight against Covid-19 from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8361, CESifo.
    19. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2020. "Corona-Pandemie: Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 36-43, April.
    20. Ruediger Bachmann & Kai Carstensen & Stefan Lautenbacher & Martin Schneider, 2020. "Unsicherheit und Beschäftigungsabbau in der Coronakrise," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(09), May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:100:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10273-020-2631-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.