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Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland
[Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Roch Donsimoni

    (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)

  • René Glawion

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Bodo Plachter

    (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)

  • Klaus Wälde

    (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)

Abstract

Zusamenfassung Die COVID-19-Epidemie wird in Deutschland im optimistischen Szenario mindestens bis Juli 2020 dauern, im normalen Szenario bis August. Öffentliche Maßnahmen wie Kontaktverbote flachen den Anstieg der Zahl der Erkrankungen temporär ab und verlängern die Dauer der Epidemie. In der Spitze sind im optimistischen Szenario gleichzeitig bis zu 200.000 Menschen erkrankt, im normalen Szenario liegen die Werte um 1 Million. Langfristig werden im normalen Szenario 6 % der Bevölkerung (gemeldet) erkrankt gewesen sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland [Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(4), pages 272-276, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:100:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10273-020-2631-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donsimoni Jean Roch & Wälde Klaus & Glawion René & Plachter Bodo, 2020. "Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 181-216, June.
    2. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Constantin Weiser & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 8242, CESifo.
    2. Quaas, Georg, 2021. "The measurement of the reproduction number," Working Papers 171, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    3. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Constantin Weiser & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Should contact bans be lifted in Germany?," Working Papers 2008, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.

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