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Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects

Author

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  • Donsimoni, Jean Roch

    (University of Mainz)

  • Glawion, René

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Plachter, Bodo

    (University of Mainz)

  • Weiser, Constantin

    (University of Mainz)

  • Wälde, Klaus

    (University of Mainz)

Abstract

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would be reached already in April. The number of sick individuals would fall below 1,000 at the beginning of July. When restrictions are lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should rise quickly again from around April 27. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.

Suggested Citation

  • Donsimoni, Jean Roch & Glawion, René & Plachter, Bodo & Weiser, Constantin & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13151, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland [Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(4), pages 272-276, April.
    2. Mortensen, Dale T, 1982. "Property Rights and Efficiency in Mating, Racing, and Related Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 968-979, December.
    3. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    4. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "How to Remove the Testing Bias in CoV-2 Statistics," IZA Discussion Papers 13785, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Martin Huber & Henrika Langen, 2020. "Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce Covid-19 Cases in Germany - A Synthetic Control Method Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8479, CESifo.
    5. Reinhold Kosfeld & Timo Mitze & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2021. "The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 799-825, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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