IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jregsc/v61y2021i4p799-825.html

The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhold Kosfeld
  • Timo Mitze
  • Johannes Rode
  • Klaus Wälde

Abstract

The paper studies the containment effects of public health measures to curb the spread of Covid‐19 during the first wave of the pandemic in spring 2020 in Germany. To identify the effects of six compound sets of public health measures, we employ a spatial difference‐in‐differences approach. We find that contact restrictions, mandatory wearing of face masks and closure of schools substantially contributed to flattening the infection curve. The significance of the impact of restaurant closure does not prove to be robust. No incremental effect is evidenced for closure of establishments and the shutdown of nonessential retail stores.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhold Kosfeld & Timo Mitze & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2021. "The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 799-825, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:61:y:2021:i:4:p:799-825
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12536
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jors.12536?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manfred M. Fischer & Arthur Getis (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-03647-7, December.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    3. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769, December.
    4. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Constantin Weiser & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 8242, CESifo.
    5. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Moritz Kuhn & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "The short-run macro implications of school and childcare closures," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 006, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    6. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 165-185, February.
    7. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Constantin Weiser & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Should contact bans be lifted in Germany?," Working Papers 2008, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    8. Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Simeon Schächtele, 2021. "How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-12, September.
    9. Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2015. "Difference-in-differences techniques for spatial data: Local autocorrelation and spatial interaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 123-126.
    10. Marynia Kolak & Luc Anselin, 2020. "A Spatial Perspective on the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(1-2), pages 128-153, January.
    11. Megan Heckert & Jeremy Mennis, 2012. "The Economic Impact of Greening Urban Vacant Land: A Spatial Difference-In-Differences Analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 44(12), pages 3010-3027, December.
    12. Donsimoni Jean Roch & Glawion René & Hartl Tobias & Plachter Bodo & Timmer Jens & Wälde Klaus & Weber Enzo & Weiser Constantin, 2020. "Covid-19 in Deutschland – Erklärung, Prognose und Einfluss gesundheitspolitischer Maßnahmen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 250-262, September.
    13. Chagas, André L.S. & Azzoni, Carlos R. & Almeida, Alexandre N., 2016. "A spatial difference-in-differences analysis of the impact of sugarcane production on respiratory diseases," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 24-36.
    14. Richard Bluhm & Maxim Pinkovskiy, 2021. "The spread of COVID-19 and the BCG vaccine: A natural experiment in reunified Germany," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(3), pages 353-376.
    15. Michael Berlemann & Erik Haustein, 2020. "Right and Yet Wrong: A Spatio-Temporal Evaluation of Germany's Covid-19 Containment Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8446, CESifo.
    16. David A. Jaeger & Theodore J. Joyce & Robert Kaestner, 2020. "A Cautionary Tale of Evaluating Identifying Assumptions: Did Reality TV Really Cause a Decline in Teenage Childbearing?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 317-326, April.
    17. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
    18. Tom Stannard & Gregorius Steven & Chris McDonald, 2020. "Economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2020/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Solmaria Halleck Vega & J. Paul Elhorst, 2015. "The Slx Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 339-363, June.
    20. Sophia Chen & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Nicola Pierri & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2020. "Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2020/125, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    22. Diao, Mi & Leonard, Delon & Sing, Tien Foo, 2017. "Spatial-difference-in-differences models for impact of new mass rapid transit line on private housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 64-77.
    23. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2004. "Can Labor Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 91-134.
    24. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    25. Gianfranco Piras, 2014. "Impact estimates for static spatial panel data models in R," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 213-223, October.
    26. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    27. Seres, Gyula & Balleyer, Anna & Cerutti, Nicola & Friedrichsen, Jana & Süer, Müge, 2020. "Face mask use and physical distancing before and after mandatory masking: Evidence from public waiting lines," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2020-305, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    28. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2015. "The path from cause to effect: mastering 'metrics," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 442, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    29. Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin, 2011. "The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Public Health," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 133-156, Spring.
    30. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde & Constantin Weiser, 2020. "Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 66(2), pages 115-133.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiafeng Gu, 2024. "The Impact of Regional Patent Policies on University Technology Transfer: Empirical Evidence from China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 18770-18796, December.
    2. Jiafeng Gu, 2021. "Effects of Patent Policy on Outputs and Commercialization of Academic Patents in China: A Spatial Difference-in-Differences Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Jiafeng Gu, 2025. "The low-carbon city initiative and urban inbound tourism economy: a spatial difference-in-differences analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(11), pages 26891-26912, November.
    4. Angela Stefania Bergantino & Giulio Fusco & Mario Intini & Gianluca Monturano, 2026. "Digital divide and income inequality: causal evidence from Italian provinces," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 75(1), pages 1-45, March.
    5. Manuel Denzer & Philipp Grunau, 2024. "The impacts of working from home on individual health and well-being," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(5), pages 743-762, July.
    6. Kevin Credit & Matthew Lehnert, 2024. "A structured comparison of causal machine learning methods to assess heterogeneous treatment effects in spatial data," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 483-510, October.
    7. Kwan Ok Lee & Hyojung Lee, 2022. "Public responses to COVID‐19 case disclosure and their spatial implications," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 732-756, June.
    8. Bruno P. Carvalho & Susana Peralta & João Pereira dos Santos, 2022. "Regional and sectorial impacts of the Covid‐19 crisis: Evidence from electronic payments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 757-798, June.
    9. repec:hal:journl:hal-04549691 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Silke Hamann & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Duncan Roth & Georg Sieglen, 2023. "How does the Covid‐19 pandemic affect regional labor markets and why do large cities suffer most?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1228-1250, November.
    11. Cooper, Daniel & Garga, Vaishali & Luengo-Prado, María José & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    12. Roxanne Kovacs & Maurice Dunaiski & Janne Tukiainen, 2023. "The effect of compulsory face mask policies on community mobility in Germany," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(4), pages 1027-1055, October.
    13. Samuel de Haas & Georg Goetz & Sven Heim, 2021. "Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related night curfews: Empirical evidence from Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202118, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. repec:osf:socarx:v2ef8_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Shangsong Zhen & Wei Wang & Yue Peng & Yunqiang Liu, 2026. "Does cross-policy mix work on agriculture total factor productivity: analyzing by the impact of agricultural mechanization and large-scale operations in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1847-1881, January.
    16. Jiafeng Gu, 2024. "Does the Visa-Free Policy Promote Inbound Tourism? Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, June.
    17. Bülte, Christopher & Buse, Rebekka, 2025. "Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and COVID-19 in the UK," Working Paper Series in Economics 174, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    18. Nicolas Debarsy & Julie Le Gallo, 2025. "Identification of Spatial Spillovers: Do's and Don'ts," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 2152-2173, December.
    19. Alessandro Bucciol & Roberta Muri & Francesca Rossi, 2025. "Municipal Waste Policies and Spill over Effects," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(8), pages 2263-2286, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thais Waideman Niquito & Fernando Pozzobon & Vinícius Halmenschlager & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro, 2021. "Human-made disasters and economic impact for a developing economy: evidence from Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2313-2341, December.
    2. Chagas, André L.S. & Azzoni, Carlos R. & Almeida, Alexandre N., 2016. "A spatial difference-in-differences analysis of the impact of sugarcane production on respiratory diseases," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 24-36.
    3. Nicolas Debarsy & Julie Le Gallo, 2025. "Identification of Spatial Spillovers: Do's and Don'ts," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 2152-2173, December.
    4. repec:hal:journl:hal-04549691 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Philipp Breidenbach & Timo Mitze, 2022. "Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 15-45.
    6. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    7. Shanxia Sun & Michael S. Delgado, 2024. "Local spatial difference-in-differences models: treatment correlations, response interactions, and expanded local models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 2077-2107, November.
    8. Yu, Yantuan & Zhang, Ning, 2021. "Low-carbon city pilot and carbon emission efficiency: Quasi-experimental evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    10. Chang, Hung-Hao & Lee, Brian & Hsieh, Yi-Ting, 2021. "Participation in afforestation programs and the distribution of forest farm income," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Paul Demeré, 2023. "Is tax return information useful to equity investors?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1413-1465, September.
    12. Olga Demidova, 2021. "Methods of spatial econometrics and evaluation of government programs effectiveness," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 64, pages 107-134.
    13. Jingjing Deng & Mingxian Li & Yi Li & Jun Lu, 2024. "Effect of Environmental Courts on Pollution Abatement: A Spatial Difference-in-Differences Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Zhu, Chen & Xia, Yuqing & Liu, Qing & Hou, Bojun, 2023. "Deregulation and green innovation: Does cultural reform pilot project matter," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-105.
    15. Andre Chagas & Carlos Azzoni & Alexandre Almeida, 2015. "A Spatial Difference-in-Difference Analysis to Measure the Sugarcane Producing Impact in Respiratory Health," ERSA conference papers ersa15p511, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Zhu, Chen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The effects of low-carbon pilot policy on technological innovation: Evidence from prefecture-level data in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    17. Credit, Kevin, 2025. "The Impact of Light Rail Construction on Regional On-Road CO2 Emissions Per Capita," OSF Preprints euyj6_v2, Center for Open Science.
    18. Kaicheng Zhang & Kai Liu & Caihong Huang, 2024. "Cooperative Innovation Under the “Belt and Road Initiative” for Reducing Carbon Emissions: An Estimation Based on the Spatial Difference-in-Differences Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-32, November.
    19. Giulia Bettin & Isabella Giorgetti & Stefano Staffolani, 2024. "The impact of Covid-19 lockdown on the gender gap in the Italian labour market," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    20. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156.
    21. Bardaka, Eleni & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2018. "Causal identification of transit-induced gentrification and spatial spillover effects: The case of the Denver light rail," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 15-31.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:61:y:2021:i:4:p:799-825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-4146 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.