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Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and COVID-19 in the UK

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  • Bülte, Christopher
  • Buse, Rebekka

Abstract

We quantify the economic costs in the UK since the Brexit referendum and discern them from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The simultaneous effects of COVID-19 and Brexit are disentangled by evaluating pandemic-related indices relative to economic losses. These losses are measured with a synthetic control method, allowing for a causal interpretation of Brexit. We demonstrate that the UK has suffered exceptionally during the pandemic and that these additional losses are attributed to the long-term economic effects of Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Bülte, Christopher & Buse, Rebekka, 2025. "Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and COVID-19 in the UK," Working Paper Series in Economics 174, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:329635
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. Kosfeld, Reinhold & Mitze, Timo & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2021. "The Covid-19 containment effects of public health measures - A spatial difference-in-differences approach," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 126127, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
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    5. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2722-2744. is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Reinhold Kosfeld & Timo Mitze & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2021. "The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 799-825, September.
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    9. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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