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Covid-19 in Deutschland – Erklärung, Prognose und Einfluss gesundheitspolitischer Maßnahmen

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Roch Donsimoni

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Tobias Hartl

    (University of Regensburg)

  • René Glawion

    (Hamburg University)

  • Jens Timmer

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Bodo Plachter

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Constantin Weiser

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Enzo Weber

    (Bundesagentur für Arbeit)

  • Klaus Wälde

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

Abstract

Die Autoren erklären den bisherigen Verlauf von Covid-19 in Deutschland durch Regressionsanalysen und epidemiologische Modelle. Sie beschreiben und quantifizieren den Effekt der gesundheitspolitischen Maßnahmen (GPM), die bis zum 19. April in Kraft waren. Sie berechnen den erwarteten Verlauf der Covid-19-Epidemie in Deutschland, wenn es diese Maßnahmen nicht gegeben hätte, und zeigen, dass die GPM einen erheblichen Beitrag zur Reduktion der Infektionszahlen geleistet haben. Die seit 20. April gelockerten GPM sind zwischen den Bundesländern relativ heterogen, was ein Glücksfall für die Wissenschaft ist. Mittels einer Analyse dieser Heterogenität kann aufgedeckt werden, welche Maßnahmen für eine Bekämpfung einer eventuellen zweiten Infektionswelle besonders hilfreich und besonders schädlich sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Roch Donsimoni & Tobias Hartl & René Glawion & Jens Timmer & Bodo Plachter & Constantin Weiser & Enzo Weber & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Covid-19 in Deutschland – Erklärung, Prognose und Einfluss gesundheitspolitischer Maßnahmen," Working Papers 2012, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    • Handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2012
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    Cited by:

    1. Krenz Astrid & Strulik Holger, 2021. "The benefits of remoteness – digital mobility data, regional road infrastructure, and COVID-19 infections," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 257-287, August.
    2. Reinhold Kosfeld & Timo Mitze & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2021. "The Covid‐19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference‐in‐differences approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 799-825, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; Corona-Epidemie Deutschland; Prognose; Strukturbruchanalyse; epidemiologische Modelle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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