Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler
The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to be generally optimistic. The analysis of the forecasts in the years 1995 to 2004 shows nevertheless that they were for the most years fairly accurate. In addition, the article gives several arguments which may explain forecast errors: data revisions, unpredictable events, behavioural and political feedback and imitation behaviour of forecasters.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.economics.uni-goettingen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002.
"Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 2.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Owen Lamont, 1995.
"Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters,"
NBER Working Papers
5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Friedrich Wu, 2001. "The Emerging Northeastâ€“Southeast Asia Divide and Policy Implications," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 169-180, January.
- Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002.
"Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle – Evidence and Causes,"
Chapters in SUERF Studies,
SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 20 edited by Morten Balling.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD Publishing.
- Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank, 2004. "Wachstum des Produktionspotentials in Deutschland bleibt schwach," Kiel Discussion Papers 414, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1987.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-74, November.
- Dicke, Hugo & Glismann, Hans H., 2002. "Haben sich die Konjunkturprognosen des Sachverständigenrates verbessert?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1998 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(12), pages 736-740.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
- Prakash Loungani, 2001. "How Clear is the Crystal Ball?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:vwldps:123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ben Schroeter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.