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When are GDP forecasts updated? Evidence from a large international panel

  • Dovern, Jonas

Based on a large international panel of surveyed GDP forecasts I analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of forecast revisions. I find that each month on average 40%–50% of forecasters revise their forecasts. In addition, I find that the likelihood of forecast revisions significantly depends on a number of factors such as the forecast horizon, the business-cycle, or strategic interactions between forecasters. My results suggest that a realistic modeling of expectations/forecasts of agents has to take into account cross-sectional heterogeneity, strategic interaction between agents, and effects of the economic environment—features that existing models such as the sticky information framework are missing.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 120 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 521-524

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:120:y:2013:i:3:p:521-524
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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