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Why Are Inflation Forecasts Sticky? Theory and Application to France and Germany

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Abstract

This paper proposes a theoretical model of forecasts formation which implies that in presence of information observation and forecasts communication costs, rational professional forecasters might find it optimal not to revise their forecasts continuously, or at any time. The threshold time- and state-dependence of the observation review and forecasts revisions implied by this model are then tested using inflation forecast updates of professional forecasters from recent Consensus Economics panel data for France and Germany. Our empirical results support the presence of both kinds of dependence, as well as their threshold-type shape. They also imply an upper bound of the optimal time between two information observations of about six months and the co-existence of both types of costs, the observation cost being about 1.5 times larger than the communication cost.

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  • Frédérique Bec & Raouf Boucekkine & Caroline Jardet, 2017. "Why Are Inflation Forecasts Sticky? Theory and Application to France and Germany," AMSE Working Papers 1744, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1744
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast revision; binary choice models; information and communication costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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