On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests
This note shows that problems due to aggregation in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests are not as severe as they are in unbiasedness tests. We also show that first lags of consensus revisions should be avoided in the tests.
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- Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000.
"To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data,"
200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-291, July.
- Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1983. "Rational Expectations, Informational Efficiency, and Tests Using Survey Data: A Reply [The Formation of Inflationary Expectations]," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 529-531, August.
- Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004.
"Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
601, Econometric Society.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1987.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
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