IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/315-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Dalsgaard
  • Jørgen Elmeskov
  • Cyn-Young Park

Abstract

This paper first reviews a number of stylised facts concerning OECD country business cycles over the past four decades. In general, the amplitude of business cycles has fallen, driven mainly by declining fluctuations of domestic demand. As a result, international divergencies of cyclical positions have diminished but, outside the euro area, there is little evidence of increased synchronisation of cycles. The paper then reviews a number of influences on business cycles. The evidence suggests that, on balance, features of macroeconomic policies may have tended to reduce cyclical volatility and structural changes, notably the increased share of the service sector in the economies, have also tended to dampen the cycle. More recently, there are signs that financial market prices have increasingly moved in sympathy across countries, and the final section of the paper illustrates how this could affect the international transmission of cyclical shocks and the associated need for policy ... Changements continus du cycle économique - faits et causes Ce document commence par présenter un certain nombre de faits typiques concernant les cycles économiques des pays de l’OCDE de ces quatre dernières décennies. En général, l’amplitude des cycles économiques a diminué en raison principalement de la baisse des fluctuations de la demande intérieure. Ceci a entraîné une réduction des divergences internationales des positions cycliques, bien que, en dehors de la zone euro, il n’est pas évident que la synchronisation des cycles ait augmenté. Ce document examine ensuite les diverses influences sur les cycles de l’économie. Quelques aspects des politiques macro-économiques peuvent avoir eu tendance à réduire la volatilité cyclique et les changements structurels, notamment l’augmentation de la part du secteur des services dans les économies, a aussi contribué à atténuer le cycle. Plus récemment, certains signes indiquent que les prix du marché financier ont de plus en plus tendance à évoluer de façon similaire dans les différents pays. La ...

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:315-en
    DOI: 10.1787/480377612415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/480377612415
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/480377612415?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gene M. Grossman (ed.), 1996. "Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 553.
    2. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
    3. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-374, August.
    4. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
    5. Alan Manning, 1992. "Productivity Growth, Wage Setting and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0063, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    7. Gabriele Galati & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2001. "The impact of the euro on Europe's financial markets," BIS Working Papers 100, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mr. Cem Karacadag & Mr. Michael W Taylor, 2000. "The New Capital Adequacy Framework: Institutional Constraints and Incentive Structures," IMF Working Papers 2000/093, International Monetary Fund.
    9. George M. von Furstenberg & Bang Nam Jeon, 1989. "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 125-180.
    10. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2009. "Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return Comovements: Evidence from Cross-Listed Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 953-986, August.
    2. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    3. Enrique Alberola & José M. González Mínguez & Pablo Hernández de Cos & José M. Marqués, 2003. "How cyclical do cyclically-adjusted balances remain? An EU study," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 166(3), pages 151-181, September.
    4. Alena Kimakova, 2006. "Does globalization enhance the role of fiscal policy in economic stabilization?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 8(11), pages 1-11.
    5. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2001. "Volatility spillovers and the role of leading financial centres," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 37-71.
    6. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Evangelos Drimbetas, 2008. "Impact of international volatility and the introduction of Individual Stock Futures on the volatility of a small market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 119-119.
    7. Kofman, Paul & Martens, Martin, 1997. "Interaction between stock markets: an analysis of the common trading hours at the London and New York stock exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 387-414, June.
    8. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, "undated". "Using Vector Autoregression Models to Analyze the Behavior of the European Community Stock Markets," Penn CARESS Working Papers 6c418113c19a91c029047e102, Penn Economics Department.
    9. Jeon, Bang Nam & Jang, Beom-Sik, 2004. "The linkage between the US and Korean stock markets: the case of NASDAQ, KOSDAQ, and the semiconductor stocks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 319-340, September.
    10. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2009. "Linkages between international stock markets: A multivariate long-memory approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(12), pages 2461-2468.
    11. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2007. "Fiscal policy and private consumption in industrial and developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 912-939, December.
    13. Yochanan Shachmurove, "undated". ""Dynamic Daily Returns Among Latin Americans and Other Major World Stock Markets''," CARESS Working Papres 96-03, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    14. Pollard, Stephen K. & Sapra, Sunil K. & Canarella, Giorgio, 2007. "Asymmetry and Spillover Effects in the North American Equity Markets," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    15. Hassan, M. Kabir & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1996. "Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 387-405.
    16. Theodossiou, Panayiotis & Koutmos, Gregory, 1994. "Linkages between the U.S. and Japanese stock markets: A bivariate garch-m analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 277-287.
    17. Signe Krogstrup, 2002. "Should We Pay Attention to Indicators of Fiscal Impact on Demand?," IHEID Working Papers 01-2002, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    18. Francisco Castro & Daniel Garrote, 2015. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in the EMU and differences with the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1365, December.
    19. Dumitru, Ionut & Stanca, Razvan, 2010. "Fiscal discipline and economic growth – the case of Romania," MPRA Paper 27300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 251-285, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; cycle économique; international linkages; liaisons internationales; macroeconomic policies; politique macro-économique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:315-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.