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Der neue Konjunkturindex "KonSens": Ein gleichlaufender, vierteljährlicher Sammelindikator für Liechtenstein

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  • Brunhart, Andreas

Abstract

Die Basis konjunkturell relevanter Daten ist für Liechtenstein spärlich, zudem ist die Publikationsverzögerung teilweise hoch und die Frequenz oft tief. Das BIP liegt nur auf Jahresbasis vor und weist eine Publikationsverzögerung von 15 Monaten auf. Im vorliegenden Papier wird durch die Erarbeitung eines vierteljährlichen Konjunkturindexes „KonSens“ („Konjunktursensor“) ein gemeinsames konjunkturelles Signal („Business Cycle as a Consensus“) generiert. Dies geschieht per Hauptkomponentenanalysen-Aggregation von 16 liechtensteinischen, konjunkturellen Einzelindikatoren, die zeitnah und auf Quartalsbasis zur Verfügung stehen. Dadurch wird eine wertvolle Ergänzung zum üblichen Konjunkturbegriff bereitgestellt, der sich meistens nur auf die zyklische Trendabweichung einer einzelnen Wirtschaftsreihe stützt (üblicherweise der BIP-Produktionslücke). Der KonSens schafft ein gesamtwirtschaftliches Konjunktursignal mit schnellerer Verfügbarkeit, höherer Frequenz, guter Verlässlichkeit und einfacher Interpretation sowie eine breiter abgestützte konzeptionelle analytische Grundlage als bis anhin verfügbar. Er verbessert darauf aufbauend die liechtensteinische Konjunkturanalyse und damit auch die Prognosebasis, sowohl für Liechtenstein wie möglicherweise auch für die Schweiz (gegenüber der die liechtensteinische Volkswirtschaft einen signifikanten Konjunkturvorlauf aufweist). Der KonSens könnte auch für andere Klein(st)staaten, welche ähnliche Datenrestriktionen kennen, oder für autonome Gebiete, subnationale Regionen und gar Städte als Vorbild dienen.

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  • Brunhart, Andreas, 2019. "Der neue Konjunkturindex "KonSens": Ein gleichlaufender, vierteljährlicher Sammelindikator für Liechtenstein," EconStor Preprints 225261, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:225261
    DOI: 10.13091/li-ap-62
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    1. Brunhart, Andreas & Geiger, Martin & Hasler, Elias & Lehmann, Johannes, 2020. "Wachstumsmonitor 2020. Eine mehrdimensionale Darstellung der Wachstumsentwicklung der liechtensteinischen Volkswirtschaft," EconStor Research Reports 230685, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liechtenstein; Konjunkturanalyse; Konjunkturindex; Hauptkomponentenanalyse; Sammelindikator; Saisonbereinigung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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