IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Ein Frühindikator für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts

Listed author(s):
  • Georg Goldrian
Registered author(s):

    2001 wurde vom ifo Institut ein synthetischer Frühindikator für das trendbereinigte_reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt vorgestellt, der sich ausschließlich aus qualitativen Zeitreihen zusammensetzt. Es handelt sich dabei um Reihen aus dem ifo Konjunkturtest und dem GfK Konsumklima. Hier wird eine neue Variante vorgestellt, in die die kurzfristigen Zinsen miteinbezogen sind. Dieser gemischte synthetische Indikator weist bei einem Vorlauf von durchschnittlich vier Monaten eine etwas bessere konjunkturelle Übereinstimmung mit der Referenzreihe auf. Damit lässt sich ein noch leistungsfähigerer Frühindikator für die Jahreswachstumsraten des realen BIP entwickeln.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 07 (April)
    Pages: 41-43

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:07:p:41-43
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München

    Phone: +49-89-9224-0
    Fax: +49-89-985369
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    in new window

    1. Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Aus Befragungsdaten zusammengesetzte Frühindikatoren - Adäquate Bauweise und prognostische Aussagekraft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:07:p:41-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.