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A leading indicator for the development of the gross domestic product

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  • Georg Goldrian

Abstract

In 2001 a leading indicator for the trend-adjusted real gross domestic product, consisting solely of qualitative time series, was introduced by the Ifo Institute. The time series were taken from the Ifo Business Survey and the GfK Consumer Climate. Here a new variant is presented in which short-term interest rates are included. This mixed, synthetic indicator has a lead of four months, on average, and a better business-cycle correspondence that the reference series. This will allow for the creation of a even better leading indicator for the annual growth rates of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Goldrian, 2004. "A leading indicator for the development of the gross domestic product," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 41-43, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:07:p:41-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Early indicators derived from survey data: adequate construction design and forecasting quality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Short-term industry forecasting on basis of results of the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, April.
    3. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Handbuch der umfragebasierten Konjunkturforschung," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 15.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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