IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/sercdp/0079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Artis
  • Marianne Sensier

Abstract

This paper assesses turning points in the economic cycle of Welsh unitary authorities by applying a mathematical algorithm to the claimant count unemployment data. All but one unitary authority has now emerged from recession (Anglesey being the exception). We also date the business cycle for the UK and country-level employment data and Wales has emerged from recession but Scotland is yet to exit recession. We estimate a logistic model which utilises housing sector and survey data to forecast the Welsh employment cycle. The model predicts that employment in Wales will continue to grow into 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2011. "Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery," SERC Discussion Papers 0079, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/sercdp0079.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    2. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
    4. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, March.
    5. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
    6. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    3. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
    4. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
    5. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    6. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    7. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
    8. Louise Holm, 2016. "The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-22.
    9. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "Euro area and US recessions: 1970-2003," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6405, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Pamphile MEZUI-MBENG, 2012. "Cycle Du Credit Et Cycle Des Affaires Dans Les Pays De La Cemac," Cahiers du CEREFIGE 1202, CEREFIGE (Centre Europeen de Recherche en Economie Financiere et Gestion des Entreprises), Universite de Lorraine, revised 2012.
    11. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
    12. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2021. "Turning point and oscillatory cycles: Concepts, measurement, and use," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 977-1006, September.
    14. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
    15. Ritabrata Bose & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-033, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    16. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
    17. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47.
    18. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
    19. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    20. Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 229, Economics, The University of Manchester.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    classical business cycles; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/serc-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.