Measurement of Business Cycles
We describe different ways of measuring the business cycle. Insti- tutions such as the NBER, OECD and IMF do this through locating the turning points in series taken to represent the aggregate level of economic activity. The turning points are determined according to rules that either come from a parametric model or are non-parametric. Once located information can be extracted on cycle characteristics. We also distinguish cases where a single or multiple series are used to represent the level of activity.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 3 8344 5355
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1994.
"Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sichel, D.E., 1988.
"Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look,"
85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Forni, Mario, et al, 2001.
"Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C62-85, May.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2001. "Coincident and leading indicators for the Euro area," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10137, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003.
"Identifying business cycle turning points in real time,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Ilse Mintz, 1972. "Dating American Growth Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 1, The Business Cycle Today, pages 39-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003.
"Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
- Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:966. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katherine Perez)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.