Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle
This paper investigates the Belgian business cycle. It establishes a chronology of cycles over the period 1980-2002 using real GDP, which it suggests can be regarded as a reference cycle. It then uses this chronology to evaluate the performance of alternative business cycle indicators in terms of their ability to predict business cycle turning points. We also investigate to what extent these indicators help improve forecasting the Belgian GDP growth.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/ires
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
- C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000.
"Concordance in Business Cycles,"
IMF Working Papers
00/37, International Monetary Fund.
- C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2002.
"Identifying business cycle turning points in real time,"
2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
- Allan P. Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2001.
"What Is A Recession?: A Reprise,"
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
095, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bertrand Candelon & Vincent Bodart, 2000.
"Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge,"
Économie et Prévision,
Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 141-153.
- Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand, 1999. "Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1999018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989.
"New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators,"
178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996.
"Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003.
"Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers 237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
- Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2003018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.