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Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent, BODART

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

This paper investigates the Belgian business cycle. It establishes a chronology of cycles over the period 1980-2002 using real GDP, which it suggests can be regarded as a reference cycle. It then uses this chronology to evaluate the performance of alternative business cycle indicators in terms of their ability to predict business cycle turning points. We also investigate to what extent these indicators help improve forecasting the Belgian GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2003018
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    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2003-18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Vincent Bodart & Bertrand Candelon, 2000. "Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 141-153.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2007. "A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle," MPRA Paper 33428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dating;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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