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Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

Author

Listed:
  • João Victor Issler

  • Hilton Hostalacio Notini

  • Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues

Abstract

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature. Keywords: Coincident and Leading Indicators, Business Cycles, Common Features, Latent Factor Analysis JEL codes: C32, E32

Suggested Citation

  • João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5k4841782xnn
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k4841782xnn
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    1. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:1:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Issler, Joao Victor & Notini, Hilton & Rodrigues, Claudia & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    3. Cravo, Túlio A., 2011. "Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 754-769.
    4. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalacio, 2016. "Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(1), March.
    5. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Herman Kamil & Jose David Pulido & Jose Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 609, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Túlio Cravo, 2011. "Are Small Firms more cyclically Sensitive than Large Ones? National, Regional and Sectoral Evidence from Brazil," ERSA conference papers ersa10p507, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Herman Kamil & Jos� David Pulido & Jos� Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un �ndice mensual l�der de la actividad econ�mica en Colombia"," Borradores de Economia 7129, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual de la actividad económica en Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 495-548, octubre-d.
    10. Desirée Castrillo R. & Carlos Mora G. & Carlos Torres G., 2010. "Mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Costa Rica: periodo 1991-2007," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 549-599, octubre-d.
    11. Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas, 2010. "Características de la inflación importada en Bolivia: ¿puede contenerse con política cambiaria?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 463-493, octubre-d.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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