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Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

  • João Victor Issler

    ()

  • Hilton Hostalacio Notini

    ()

  • Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues

    ()

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature. Keywords: Coincident and Leading Indicators, Business Cycles, Common Features, Latent Factor Analysis JEL codes: C32, E32

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k4841782xnn
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Article provided by OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys in its journal OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

Volume (Year): 2012 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 43-65

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Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5k4841782xnn
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