IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil

  • Cravo, Túlio A.

An important issue facing policymakers is the degree to which fluctuations in economic activity affect employment in large and small businesses across sectors and regions. This issue is particularly relevant for developing countries as it matters for the understanding of the labour market dynamics, and for devising national, sectoral, and regional labour policies that aim at dampening employment fluctuations, particularly during recessions. Using a unique monthly dataset of 27 states and eight industries from 2000:1 to 2009:7, this paper evaluates the sensitivity of businesses of different sizes to business cycle conditions in Brazil. The behaviour of the difference in employment growth rates between large and small firms is counter-cyclical and suggests that small firms are more sensitive to business cycle conditions. In addition, the SVAR impulse response analysis suggests the existence of the effect of small firms hiring cheaply from unemployment proportionally more than large ones. On the other hand, credit constraints seem to hit small firms harder and help to explain the empirical regularity that small firms are more cyclically sensitive than large ones for the Brazilian case.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 754-769

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:754-769
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ricardo Paes de Barros & Carlos Henrique Corseuil, 2001. "The Impact of Regulations on Brazilian Labor Market Performance," Research Department Publications 3124, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  4. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Meghana Ayyagari & Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc-Kunt, 2007. "Small and Medium Enterprises Across the Globe," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 415-434, December.
  7. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  8. Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1993. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 93-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Job security, employment and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 851-879, June.
  10. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2009. "Large Employers Are More Cyclically Sensitive," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 09/609, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  11. Marcelo Veracierto, 2002. "On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation," Working Paper Series WP-02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "The influence of financial and legal institutions on firm size," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2995-3015, November.
  13. Aureo de Paula & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2009. "The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-044, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  14. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  15. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  17. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
  18. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2012. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
  19. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2008. "Credit constraints and the cyclicality of R&D investment: Evidence from France," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586744, HAL.
  20. Maloney, William, 2003. "Informality revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2965, The World Bank.
  21. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-71, September.
  22. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  23. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Leading and Confirming Indicators of General Business Changes," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 45-109 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  25. James Albrecht & Lucas Navarro & Susan Vroman, 2009. "The Effects of Labour Market Policies in an Economy with an Informal Sector," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(539), pages 1105-1129, 07.
  26. Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
  27. George W. Stadler, 1994. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1750-1783, December.
  28. Almeida, Rita & Carneiro, Pedro, 2009. "Enforcement of labor regulation and firm size," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 28-46, March.
  29. Harrison, Ann E & Leamer, Edward, 1997. "Labor Markets in Developing Countries: An Agenda for Research," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages S1-19, July.
  30. Henley, Andrew & Arabsheibani, G. Reza & Carneiro, Francisco G., 2009. "On Defining and Measuring the Informal Sector: Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 992-1003, May.
  31. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  32. Rua, Antonio & Nunes, Luis C., 2005. "Coincident and leading indicators for the euro area: A frequency band approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 503-523.
  33. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2009. "The Timing of Labor Market Expansions: New Facts and a New Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 1-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Fabio Kanczuk, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Brazilian Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 436-455, April.
  35. Afonso Ferreira, 2000. "Convergence in Brazil: recent trends and long-run prospects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 479-489.
  36. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  37. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John & Schuh, Scott, 1996. " Small Business and Job Creation: Dissecting the Myth and Reassessing the Facts," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 297-315, August.
  38. Carvalho, Alexandre & Moura, Marcelo L., 2008. "What Can Taylor Rules Say About Monetary Policy in Latin America?," Insper Working Papers wpe_126, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  39. Christian Volpe Martincus & Andrea Molinari, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders: What Are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 140-178, April.
  40. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, December.
  41. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  42. Marcio Laurini & Eduardo Andrade & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2005. "Income convergence clubs for Brazilian Municipalities: a non-parametric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(18), pages 2099-2118.
  43. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2008. "The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 275-363.
  44. Raul Silveira-Neto & Carlos R. Azzoni, 2006. "Location and regional income disparity dynamics: The Brazilian case," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(4), pages 599-613, November.
  45. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2005. "Financial and Legal Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 137-177, 02.
  46. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2005. "SMEs, Growth, and Poverty: Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 199-229, 09.
  47. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2006. "Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2931-2943, November.
  48. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2010. "Unemployment and Small Cap Returns: The Nexus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 333-37, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:754-769. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.