IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders - What are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?

Listed author(s):
  • Christian Ariel Volpe Martincus

    ()

  • Andrea Molinari

    ()

Does trade lead to increased cross-country regional business cycle synchronization and reduced national economic borders? The theory does not really provide an unambiguous answer. Our paper addresses empirically this question using Argentina and Brazil as case studies of developing countries. These countries liberalized unilaterally trade since the mid-1980s and also established MERCOSUR (a regional integration agreement with Paraguay and Uruguay) in 1991. As a consequence, the intensity of trade between Argentina and Brazil rose significantly. The answer to the initial question is no. The increase in bilateral trade between Argentina and Brazil did not translate into significantly more synchronized regional business cycles. Using Gross Provincial Product for Argentina and Gross State Product for Brazil for the period 1961 to 2000, we find that within-country regional business cycle synchronization is substantially larger than cross-country regional business cycle synchronization. Moreover, this difference has increased over time. These results are mainly driven by Argentina’s behavior and hold even after controlling for factors such as distance, size, sectoral specialization, and the degree of regional fiscal policy coordination. The empirical evidence based on Brazilian states and Argentina as a whole suggests that the higher level of trade among regions within a country is an important factor to that accounts for the observed border effect. In the case of Argentina additional factors such as monetary and exchange rate policies and large country-specific shocks have also played a significant role.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www-sre.wu-wien.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa05/papers/93.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa05p93.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p93
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria

Web page: http://www.ersa.org

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
  2. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency," NBER Working Papers 6821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lane, Philip R, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
  4. Terra, Cristina & Valladares, Frederico, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 119-144, January.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1994. "The political economy of fiscal restrictions: Implications for Europe from the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 783-791, April.
  6. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
  7. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
  8. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
  9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  10. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
  11. Salvador Barrios & Marius Br¸lhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, 06.
  12. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-374, August.
  13. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & Gyorgy Szapary, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
  15. Salvador Barrios & Juan Jose Lucio, 2003. "Economic Integration and Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from the Iberian Regions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 497-515, 09.
  16. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January.
  17. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  18. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  19. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
  20. Escaith, Hubert & Paunovic, Igor, 2003. "Regional integration in Latin America and dynamic gains from macroeconomic cooperation," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 24, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  21. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  22. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  23. Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2001. "Is state fiscal policy asymmetric over the business cycle?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 43-64.
  24. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  25. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
  26. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
  27. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do Trade and Financial Linkages Foster Business cycle Synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers 0801, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  29. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
  30. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
  31. Norman Loayza & J. Humberto Lopez & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Sectorial Macroeconomic Interdependencies; Evidence for Latin America, East Asia and Europe," IMF Working Papers 99/11, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  33. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 205-259, 04.
  34. Hubert Escaith & Christian Ghymers & Rogerio Studart, 2005. "Regional Integration and the Issue of Choosing an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime in Latin America," Chapters, in: Regional Currency Areas in Financial Globalization, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.