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Ampleur et déterminants des cycles d’activité en Chine

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  • Jean Barthélemy
  • Sandra Poncet

Abstract

[fre] Cet article étudie l’ampleur et les déterminants de la synchronisation des cycles d’activité à l’intérieur de la Chine. Le fédéralisme de facto qui caractérise ce pays suggère l’importance de la coordination entre les différentes politiques provinciales. Nous portons une attention particulière à l’influence de l’autonomie provinciale en termes de politiques industrielles, fiscales et commerciales. Nos résultats indiquent que le commerce intérieur et la coordination fiscale influencent positivement l’intégration économique et stabilisent les fluctuations entre les régions. À l’inverse, l’hétérogénéité en termes de commerce international et de structure de production ressort comme une force centrifuge nuisible à terme à la cohésion économique de la Chine. [eng] Our study examines the amplitude and determinants of the synchronization of business cycles in China. The country’s de facto federalism suggests the importance of coordination between provincial policies. We devote special attention to the influence of provincial autonomy on industrial, tax, and trade policies. Our results indicate that domestic trade and tax coordination promote economic integration and stabilize inter-regional fluctuations. Conversely, we find that heterogeneous international-trade and production structures act as a centrifugal force ultimately harmful to China's economic cohesion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Barthélemy & Sandra Poncet, 2008. "Ampleur et déterminants des cycles d’activité en Chine," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 185(4), pages 1-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_185_4_7834
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7834
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
    3. Salvador Barrios & Juan Jose Lucio, 2003. "Economic Integration and Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from the Iberian Regions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 497-515, September.
    4. Salvador Barrios & Marius Br¸lhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    5. Geneviève Boyreau-Debray, 2000. "Politique économique locale et inflation en Chine," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(3), pages 713-724.
    6. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    7. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    8. Sandra Poncet, 2005. "A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-430, August.
    9. Yuanzheng Cao & Yingyi Qian & Barry R. Weingast, 1999. "From federalism, Chinese style to privatization, Chinese style," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(1), pages 103-131, March.
    10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    11. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    12. Lyons, Thomas P., 1985. "China's cellular economy: A test of the fragmentation hypothesis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 125-144, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. DIAGNE, Abdoulaye & NIANG, Abdou-Aziz, 2008. "Comouvements économiques dans les pays de la Zone CFA : Une analyse par le modèle factoriel dynamique généralisé," LEG - Document de travail - Economie 2008-08, LEG, Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne.

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