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Ampleur et déterminants des cycles d’activité en Chine

  • Jean Barthélemy
  • Sandra Poncet

[fre] Cet article étudie l’ampleur et les déterminants de la synchronisation des cycles d’activité à l’intérieur de la Chine. Le fédéralisme de facto qui caractérise ce pays suggère l’importance de la coordination entre les différentes politiques provinciales. Nous portons une attention particulière à l’influence de l’autonomie provinciale en termes de politiques industrielles, fiscales et commerciales. Nos résultats indiquent que le commerce intérieur et la coordination fiscale influencent positivement l’intégration économique et stabilisent les fluctuations entre les régions. À l’inverse, l’hétérogénéité en termes de commerce international et de structure de production ressort comme une force centrifuge nuisible à terme à la cohésion économique de la Chine. [eng] Our study examines the amplitude and determinants of the synchronization of business cycles in China. The country’s de facto federalism suggests the importance of coordination between provincial policies. We devote special attention to the influence of provincial autonomy on industrial, tax, and trade policies. Our results indicate that domestic trade and tax coordination promote economic integration and stabilize inter-regional fluctuations. Conversely, we find that heterogeneous international-trade and production structures act as a centrifugal force ultimately harmful to China's economic cohesion.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 185 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_185_4_7834
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7834
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  1. S Barrios & M Brülhart & R Elliott & M Sensier, 2001. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0101, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Eric Van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Research Working Paper 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Sandra PONCET, 2002. "A Fragmented China. Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration," Working Papers 200221, CERDI.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Yuanzheng Cao & Yingyi Qian & Barry R. Weingast, 1997. "From Federalism, Chinese Style to Privatization, Chinese style," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 126, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. BARRIOS, Salvador & de LUCIO, Juan José, 2002. "Economic integration and regional business cycles: Evidence from the Iberian regions," CORE Discussion Papers 2002073, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Jaume Ventura, 1998. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-Section of Business Cycles," Working papers 98-9, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Lyons, Thomas P., 1985. "China's cellular economy: A test of the fragmentation hypothesis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 125-144, June.
  9. César Calderón & Alberto E. Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6501, Inter-American Development Bank.
  10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  11. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
  12. repec:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2000_num_51_3_410549 is not listed on IDEAS
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