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Ampleur et déterminants des cycles d'activité en Chine

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Poncet

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean Barthélémy

    (ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Our study examines the amplitude and determinants of the synchronization of business cycles in China. The country's de facto federalism suggests the importance of coordination between provincial policies. We devote special attention to the influence of provincial autonomy on industrial, tax, and trade policies. Our results indicate that domestic trade and tax coordination promote economic integration and stabilize inter-regional fluctuations. Conversely, we find that heterogeneous international-trade and production structures act as a centrifugal force ultimately harmful to China's economic cohesion.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Poncet & Jean Barthélémy, 2008. "Ampleur et déterminants des cycles d'activité en Chine," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00649301, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00649301
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    2. DIAGNE, Abdoulaye & NIANG, Abdou-Aziz, 2008. "Comouvements économiques dans les pays de la Zone CFA : Une analyse par le modèle factoriel dynamique généralisé," LEG - Document de travail - Economie 2008-08, LEG, Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne.

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