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Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

  • Issler, João Victor
  • Notini, Hilton Hostalácio
  • Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura

This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.

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File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/9416/3/Constructing-Coincident-and-Leading-Indices-of-Economic-Activity-for-the-Brazilian-Economy.pdf
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Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 730.

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Date of creation: 15 Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:730
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