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Um indicador coincidente e antecedente da atividade econômica brasileira

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Listed:
  • Issler, João Victor
  • Notini, Hilton Hostalácio
  • Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura

Abstract

Esse artigo tem três contribuições originais. A primeira é exatamente no esforço de reconstrução das séries de emprego e renda, de modo a permitir a criação de um novo índice coincidente para a atividade econômica brasileira. A segunda é a construção de um índice coincidente de atividade econômica para o Brasil e, a partir dele, (re)estabelecer uma cronologia de recessões para o passado recente da economia brasileira. A partir da reconstrução de séries coincidentes de emprego e renda à atividade econômica e, usando a metodologia do TCB, propomos um novo indicador coincidente mensal de atividade econômica para o Brasil no período 1980:1 a 2007:11.Além disso, propomos também uma cronologia das recessões brasileiras para esse mesmo período. A terceira é a construção e a avaliação de diferentes indicadores antecedentes de atividade econômica para o Brasil. Isso preenche uma lacuna importante na literatura brasileira.

Suggested Citation

  • Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura, 2009. "Um indicador coincidente e antecedente da atividade econômica brasileira," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 695, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:695
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento, 2016. "The External Finance Premium in Brazil: Empirical Analyses Using State Space Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(1), March.

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