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El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"

Author

Listed:
  • Herman Kamil

    ()

  • José David Pulido

    ()

  • José Luis Torres

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se describe la construcción de un nuevo indicador mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia (IMACO). El procedimiento se basa en un algoritmo de búsqueda heurístico que identifica siete variables líderes del nivel de actividad, que anticipan los movimientos del PIB con cinco meses de adelanto y una correlación del 93%. Asimismo, el IMACO tiene otras propiedades predictivas deseables: anticipa los puntos de quiebre del ciclo económico colombiano sin arrojar señales falsas, y minimiza los errores de pronóstico sobre el crecimiento del PIB. Dada su simplicidad y bajo costo computacional, el IMACO provee una herramienta para el seguimiento continuo de la coyuntura y el diseño de la política económica, que puede ser replicado tanto para otros agregados macroeconómicos en Colombia así como en otros países de la región.

Suggested Citation

  • Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:007129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Franz Alonso Hamann Salcedo & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Fernanda Silva EScobar & Fernando Tenjo Galarza, 2013. "Credit Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 762, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Consumer credit performance over the business cycle in Colombia: some empirical facts," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012389, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Wilmar Cabrera & Jorge Hurtado & Miguel Morales & Juan Sebastián Rojas, "undated". "A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) for Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 80, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2014. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(73), pages 77-86, July.
    5. Franz Alonso Hamann Salcedo & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Fernanda Silva Escobar & Fernando Tenjo Galarza, 2013. "Credit Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010695, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Julián David García-Pulgarín & Javier Gómez-Restrepo & Daniel Vela-Barón, 2015. "An Asset Allocation Framework with Tranches for Foreign Reserves," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013440, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    7. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Consumer credit performance over the business cycle in Colombia: some empirical facts," Borradores de Economia 861, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe & Gómez-González, José E. & Pabón, Andrés Murcia & Tenjo-Galarza, Fernando, 2012. "The cyclical behavior of bank capital buffers in an emerging economy: Size does matter," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 1612-1617.
    9. Wilmer Osvaldo Martínez-Rivera & Manuel Dario Hernández-Bejarano & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2014. "On Forecast Evaluation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011604, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    10. Franz Hamann & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Silva & Fernando Tenjo, 2014. "Leverage Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(73), pages 50-76, July.
    11. Julián David García-Pulgarín & Javier Gómez-Restrepo & Daniel Vela-Barón, 2015. "An Asset Allocation Framework with Tranches for Foreign Reserves," Borradores de Economia 899, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Héctor Zárate & Katherine Sánchez & Margarita Marín, 2011. "Cuantificación de Encuestas Ordinales y Pruebas de Racionalidad: Una aplicación a la Encuesta Mensual de Expectativas Económicas," Borradores de Economia 649, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Wilmer Osvaldo Martínez-Rivera & Manuel Dario Hernández-Bejarano & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2014. "On Forecast Evaluation," Borradores de Economia 825, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2014. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(73), pages 77-86, July.
    15. repec:col:000152:015779 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Índice líder; ciclo económico; componentes principales.;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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